1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 06, 2013 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern and eastern China, rainfall is at or below normal levels, as well as over some southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern and central interior Australia.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation situation is again beginning to show some deficiency over eastern China and Australia. Elsewhere, so serious deficiency is noted, even though pockets of some mild dryness exists sporadically in regions including northern and southeastern Australia.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days Once the weak anticyclonic center that remain centered over the Bat of Bengal in the past week, moves away, some moderate rainfall amounts are expected to occur all along the east coast of India during the upcoming couple of weeks, according to NCEP GFS model forecasts. Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern and eastern China, rainfall is at or below normal levels, as well as over some southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern and central interior Australia. The 30-day precipitation situation is again beginning to show some deficiency over eastern China and Australia. Elsewhere, so serious deficiency is noted, even though pockets of some mild dryness exists sporadically in regions including northern and southeastern Australia. Once the weak anticyclonic center that remain centered over the Bat of Bengal in the past week, moves away, some moderate rainfall amounts are expected to occur all along the east coast of India during the upcoming couple of weeks, according to NCEP GFS model forecasts.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology