1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 03, 2013 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over northeastern India, Bangladesh, southeastern China, parts of Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over northern Australia. However, rainfall is at below normal levels over southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. Much of India is at or below normal levels.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day anomalous rainfall pattern is showing above normal features over northeastern India, Bangladesh and sporadically over eastern China and deficit characteristics over southern Japan, and over many southeast Asian countries and across India.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During this past week, IMD declared SW monsoon onset over Kerala coast in India on June 1 st. This brought welcome relief to the heat and rainfall deficits in southern India. However, over eastern Asia including southeastern China rainfall was below normal.

6. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. 7 Atmospheric Circulation

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been slightly above normal over northeastern India, Bangladesh, southeastern China, parts of Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over northern Australia. However, rainfall is at below normal levels over southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. Much of India is at or below normal levels. The 30- day anomalous rainfall pattern is showing above normal features over northeastern India, Bangladesh and sporadically over eastern China and deficit characteristics over southern Japan, and over many southeast Asian countries and across India. During this past week, IMD declared SW monsoon onset over Kerala coast in India on June 1 st. This brought welcome relief to the heat and rainfall deficits in southern India. However, over eastern Asia including southeastern China rainfall was below normal. In the upcoming two weeks, according to the NCEP GFS model, the SW monsoon will rapidly move northwards over central India, as has to be expected. But during the second upcoming week, the model is also forecasting below normal all across southern China.

10. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. 12 Climatology