1. Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction
Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
February 18, 2013
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2. Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction
Summary
Climatology

3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days
During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast.

4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days
The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast.

5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days
This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly.
Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

6. Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes
The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. Atmospheric Circulation

8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2
Week-1
Week-2

9. Summary
During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over southeastern China, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over western and eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern peninsular India and over southwestern China, rainfall is below normal. Moderate rainfall deficits continue over northern, central and eastern interior Australia away from the east coast. The 30-day precipitation is showing widespread precipitation all over the middle east and across India into eastern China. However, deficits still appear along south eastern China and across north central Australia, while surpluses have emerged along east coast.
This past week rainfall was above normal over northern India and Indonesia, but below normal over northern Australia, which was forecast correctly. In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting near to below normal rainfall over the broad monsoon region at large, but over Australia, enhanced rainfall is forecast to return in the second week.

10. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. Climatology