1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 28, 2011 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular southeastern India, northeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Elsewhere, 90 day rainfall is at near or above normal levels.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is at below normal levels along coastal Indian states of northern bay of Bengal, Thailand, and along coastal northeastern Australia. However, northern parts of Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland of Australia received higher than normal rainfall.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, the southeastern coast of peninsular India and Sri Lanka and the southeastern coast of Australia received above normal rainfall, and this was consistent with the NCEP GFS’s forecast last week. Over southern India and Sri Lanka, the excessive rainfall and damage was mainly due to Tropical Cyclone 5, that formed in the Northern Indian Ocean, which was also correctly forecast in advance by the NCEP GFS. TC 5 is heading across the northern Arabian Sea towards Oman in the Middle East. However, elsewhere in the monsoon region, the rainfall amounts are either near or below normal levels.

6. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. 7 Atmospheric Circulation These maps are not updated up to November 26-27 th to show the circulation associated with Tropical Cyclone 5 that formed in the later part of the week in the Northern Indian Ocean impacting southern India and Sri Lanka..

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 Summary Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular southeastern India, northeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Elsewhere, 90 day rainfall is at near or above normal levels. The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is at below normal levels along coastal Indian states of northern bay of Bengal, Thailand, and along coastal northeastern Australia. However, northern parts of Northern Territory and northwestern Queensland of Australia received higher than normal rainfall. This past week, the southeastern coast of peninsular India and Sri Lanka and the southeastern coast of Australia received above normal rainfall, and this was consistent with the NCEP GFS’s forecast last week. Over southern India and Sri Lanka, the excessive rainfall and damage was mainly due to Tropical Cyclone 5, that formed in the Northern Indian Ocean, which was also correctly forecast in advance by the NCEP GFS. TC 5 is heading across the northern Arabian Sea towards Oman in the Middle East. However in the past week, elsewhere in the monsoon region, the rainfall amounts are either near or at below normal levels. In the upcoming week, GFS is predicting above normal rainfall to parts of Indonesia and Philippines.

10. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. 12 Climatology