Analysis of Uncertain Data: Tools for Representation and Processing Bin Fu Eugene Fink Jaime G. Carbonell

Motivation The available knowledge about the real world is inherently uncertain. We usually make decisions based on incomplete and partially inaccurate data.

Representation of uncertainty Challenges Fast reasoning based on uncertain knowledge Identification of critical uncertainties Planning of additional data collection

Projects RADAR (2003–2008) “Reflective Agent with Distributed Adaptive Reasoning” Scheduling and resource allocation under uncertainty. RAPID (2007–2008) “Representation and Analysis of Probabilistic Intelligence Data” Analysis of uncertain military- intelligence data and planning of future data collection.

Architecture Microsoft Excel GUI Tools Representation of probability distributions and qualitative uncertainty Uncertainty arithmetic Uncertainty analysis Representation of data utility Tracking utility changes during data collection Identification of critical uncertainties Knowledge assessment Representation of probes Evaluation of probe utility Selection of critical probes Data collection What-if analysis of alternative situations and probes based on an extension of Excel “scenarios” Contingency analysis

Demo Analysis of public data about high-technology companies.