1. Centro de Estudos e Sistemas Avançados do Recife PMBOK - Chapter 11 Project Risk Management

2. n What is it about? n What are the major processes? – What do they mean (general vision)? – When should they occur ?

3. Process Groups x Knowledge Areas (Figure 3.9) Process Groups Knowledge Areas IniciaçãoPlanejamentoExecuçãoControleFinalização 4. Project Integration Management 4.1 Project Plan Development4.2 Project Plan Execution 4.3 Integrated Change Control 5.Project Scope Management 5.1 Initiation5.2 Scope Planning 5.3 Scope Definition 5.4 Scope Verification 5.5 Scope Change Control 6. Project Time Management 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Duration Estimationg 6.4 Schedule Development 6.5 Schedule Control 7. Project Cost Management 7.1 Resource Planning 7.2 Cost Estimation 7.3 Cost Budgeting 7.4 Cost Control 8. Project Quality Management 8.1 Quality Planning8.2 Quality Assurance8.3 Quality Control 9. Project Human Resource Management 9.1 Organizational Planning 9.2 Staff Acquisition 9.3 Team Development 10. Project Communications Management 10.1 Communications Planning10.2 Information Distribution 10.3 Perform Reporting10.4 Administrative Closure 11. Risk Project Management 11.1 Risk Management Planning 11.2 Risk Identification 11.3 Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Risk Response Planning 11.6 Risk Monitoring Control 12. Project Procurement Management 12.1 Procurement Planning 12.2 Solicitation Planning 12.3 Solicitation 12.4 Source Selection 12.5 Contract Administration 12.6 Contract Closeout

4. Risk Management Planning n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

5. Risk Management Planning n What does it mean? What is it for? – Deciding how to approach and plan the risk management activities for a project n Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative consequence. n Know risks have been identified and analyzed, and it may be possible to plan them. n Unknown risks cannot be managed, project manager may address them by applying a general contingency.

6. Risk Management Planning

7. Risk Identification n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

8. Risk Identification n What does it mean? What is it for? – Determining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics. n Participants in risk identification include the following as possible: project team, risk management team, subject matter experts from other parts of the company, customers, end users,... n Risk identification is an iterative process.

9. Risk Identification

10. Qualitative Risk Analysis n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

11. Qualitative Risk Analysis n What does it mean? What is it for? – Assessing the impact and likelihood of identified risks. n Determine the importance of addressing specific risks and guiding risk responses. n Trends in the results when qualitative is repeated can indicate the need for more or less risk- management action.

12. Qualitative Risk Analysis

13. Qualitative Risk Analysis (Rating impacts for a risk)

14. Qualitative Risk Analysis (Probability- impact matrix)

15. Quantitative Risk Analysis n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

16. Quantitative Risk Analysis n What does it mean? What is it for? – Analyze numerically the probability of each risk and its consequence on project objectives, as well ass the extent of overall project risk. n Qualitative and quantitative risk analysis process can be used separately or together. Generally quantitaive risks analysis follows qualitative risks analysis.

17. Quantitative Risk Analysis

18. Risk Response Planning n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

19. Risk Response Planning n What does it mean? What is it for? – Developing options and determinig actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project´s objectives. n Includes the identification and assignment of individuals or parties to take responsability for each agreed risk response.

20. Risk Response Planning

21. Risk Response Planning (Decision Tree Analysis)

22. Risk Response Planning (Cost risk simulation)

23. Risk Monitoring and Control n What does it mean? What is it for? n What do you need for doing it? – Inputs – Tools and techniques n What do you generate with it?

24. Risk Monitoring and Control n What does it mean? What is it for? – Keeping track of the identified risks, monitoring residual risks and identifying new risks. – Records risk metrics that are associated with implementing contigency plans. – Ongoing process for the life of the project.

25. Risk Monitoring and Control

26. Glossary n SWOT analysis n Decision tree analysis n PDM - Precedence Diagramming Method n Fallback plan n Contingency allowance n Residual risks n Secondary risks