1. Miriam Galt Principal Consultant Bee Successful Ltd Scenario Planning with Visual Thinking www.beesuccessful.com

2. Agenda The Leadership Challenge Scenario Planning Idon Scenario Thinking Key Points © Bee Successful Ltd

3. Future Environment Current Organisation The Leadership Challenge Balance © Bee Successful Ltd

4. Strategy right match to future needs Planning alignment with the emergent need Delivery effective service or supply Sustainability © Bee Successful Ltd

5. Limits of Perception Limits to Perception New Legislation Competitive Technologies Economic Uncertainty Shifting Buying Trends Changing Demographic s Reasonably Accurate Reasonably Accurate Conflictin g Values Unexpecte d Competitio n Shock or disruption Political Instability Crisis Time to Change Time to Change Interacting forces create the uncertainty zone © Bee Successful Ltd

6. Leadership Questions how effective are you now? how quickly can you adapt? © Bee Successful Ltd

7. Scenario Planning focus service or supply insights into the future direct planning Futures Back overcome uncertainty © Bee Successful Ltd

8. Learning Through Strategic Conversations SCENARIO THINKING Crossing the barrier of the “unknown” Default Future Intuition Facts Overcome Uncertainty Fragmented Knowledge Included Uncertainty Widened Vision © Bee Successful Ltd

9. Flexible Thinking Tools Scenario Modelling Method Idon Scenario Thinking Facilitated Strategic Conversation Visual Thinking integrated knowledge creative thinking ownership © Bee Successful Ltd

10. Strategic Conversation © Bee Successful Ltd

11. Modelling Tools Indirect impact Lower Uncertainty Direct impact Higher Uncertainty FOUR SCENARIOS A B CD - improbable events - emergent trends - inevitable occurrences - critical uncertainties © Bee Successful Ltd

12. Modelling Methods BEST ACTIONS SKILLS AND COMPETENCIES Options Readiness Action STRATEGIC INTENT SCENARIOS ROBUST AND CONTINGENT DECISIONS OptionsAction Readiness “What if?” © Bee Successful Ltd

13. STRATEGY SCENARIOS Scenario Workshops essential skills for specific or all futures potential capabilities for long term advantage organisational alignment and readiness career planning resource planning Competence and Delivery intelligence building risk management visionary planning competitive positioning building robust strategies product and service innovation competitor analysis partners and alliance identification Strategy and Planning © Bee Successful Ltd

14. Implementing Scenarios Organisational take-up Strategic Leadership and Innovation Operational Planning Alternative Futures Management Direction Scenario A Scenario CScenario D Scenario B Today © Bee Successful Ltd

15. Key Points Use all the resources you have Embrace uncertainty - its your competitive edge Use a structured scenario process to dialogue multi-future thinking - transfer it into the organisation - maintain it © Bee Successful Ltd

17. Used by the American military after the Second World War for war game 1950’s & 60’s moved into civilian domain through RAND corporation - a military think-tank where Herman Kahn introduced imaging to planning calling it “Future-Now” Publication of the book “The Year 2000” where the term “scenario” was first used, reflective of Hollywood. Kahn separated what can be predicted from the uncertainties Emergence of Stanford and Hudson Institute - Hudson attracting corporate sponsors to scenarios Traditional single line projections became probable projections “What if” story telling developed by Shell under Pierre Wack Introduction of Idon Scenario Planning with Visual Thinking Summarised History of Scenarios © Bee Successful Ltd