ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

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Presentation transcript:

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! ITRS/ORTC Table Technology Node, DRAM Key Trends, and Logic Key Trends Proposals IRC Telecon Eur - 10/03/00 Asia - 10/09/00 [Taipei ITRS 2001 Renewal Kickoff Prep.] Rev 0_d - 10/02/00 Contact: Alan Allan 480-554-8624, alan.k.allan@intel.com ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! => 2001 Renewal: Short-Term Annual, Long-Term 3-Year Columns => 2001 Renewal Technology Nodes @ 70%/node, 50%/2 nodes ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! => 2001 Renewal Long-Term Year Column ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! ITRS Roadmap Acceleration Continues... (Including MPU/ASIC “Physical Gate Length” Proposal) 95 97 99 01 04 07 10 13 16 and MPU/ASIC Gate Length Minimum Feature Size (nm) Technology Node - DRAM Half-Pitch (nm) 500 * Note: MPU ASIC Physical Bottom Gate Length Preliminary 2000 Update still under discussion. 1994 350 250 1997 Technology Node 180 1998/1999 DRAM Half Pitch 130 2000 [7/11 IRC Proposal Best Case Opportunity Scenario 2.0] XX 90 100 Minimum Feature XX 65 70 MPU/ASIC Gate “Physical” Alternative Scenarios: XX 45 50 MPU/ASIC Gate “In Resist” XX 33 35 [9/15 - Litho Proposed “In Resist” (70% of “Best Case” Half Pitch)] XX 23 [1.0] [1.5] [2.0] 25 [9/15 - Litho Proposed “Physical” (1 year ahead of “In Resist”)] 16 95 97 99 01 04 07 10 13 16 ~.7x per technology node (.5x per 2 nodes) Year of Production 2001 Renewal Period REV 1kg_c - 09/27/00 ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! Summary of Key Assumption Proposed Changes WAS(1999 ITRS) vs. IS(“Best Case” Proposal) (cont.- DRAM): DRAM Assumptions: a) Cell Area Factor Limits (from FEP TWG): WAS: 8x/1999 -> 6x/2002 -> 4.4x/2005 -> 3.0x/2011 -> 2.5x/2014 IS: 8x/1999-2004, 6x/2005-2010, 4x/2011-16 b) Cell Array Efficiency Limit Trends (from FEP, Nikkei Microdevices): WAS: Intro: 1999/70% --> 2016/75% IS: Intro: 1999/70% --> 2016/75% WAS: Production 1999/53% --> 2016/57% IS: Production 1999/53% --> 2016/58% c) Litho Field Size Maximum Limit (from Litho TWG): WAS: 4x Magnification, 6-inch Reticle Intro 1999-2016 25x32 = 800mm2 Production 1999-2016 12.5x32 = 400mm (2 chips/field) IS: 5x Magnification, 6-inch Reticle Intro 1999-2016 22x26 = 572mm2 Production 1999-2016 11x26 = 286mm2 (2 chips/field) d) Bits/Chip Product Generation Growth Rate: WAS: 1999-2014: 2x bits/chip every 2 years IS: @ Introduction: Through 8Gbit: 2x bits/chip every 2 years; After 8Gbit: 2x bits/chip every 2-3 years (4x/5years) @ Production: Through 32Gbit: 2x bits/chip every 2 years; After 32Gbit: 2x bits/chip every 2-3 years (4x/5years) ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! Summary of Key Assumption Proposed Changes WAS(1999 ITRS) vs. IS IS(“Best Case” Proposal) (cont.- Logic): MPU Assumptions: a) High Performance (HP) MPU @Ramp Starting Chip Size: WAS: 2Mbyte on-chip (6t) SRAM in 1999 (170mm2 Core plus 280mm2 SRAM = 450mm2/1999) IS: 1Mbyte on-chip (6t) SRAM in 1999 (170mm2 Core plus 140mm2 SRAM = 310mm2/1999) b) Cost Performance (CP) Starting Chip Size (SAME as 1999 ITRS): MPU @Introduction/340mm2 MPU @Ramp/170mm2 c) SRAM and Logic Transistors/chip Trend (SAME as ITRS) = 2x/2yrs d) Chip Size Growth Rate Trend WAS/ IS(7/11): Flat chip sizes through 2001, then 1.2x/4rs ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish! DRAM - ORTC Chip Size Model Per IRC Technology Node Proposal [IS, 7/11/00] (cont): ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!

ITRS Table Definitions/Guidelines - 2001 Proposal Rev0, 10/02/00 Technology Requirements Perspective - Near-Term Years : First Yr. Ref.+ 6 yrs F’cast (ex. 2001 through 2007), annually - Long-Term Years : Following 9 years (ex.: 2010, 2013, and 2016), every 3 years Technology Node : - General indices of technology development. - Approximately 70% of the preceding node, 50% of 2 preceding nodes. - Each step represents the creation of significant technology progress - Example: DRAM half pitches: 130, 90, 65, 45, 33, 23, 16 nm - Smallest 1/2 pitch among DRAM, ASIC, MPU, etc Year of Production: - The volume = 10K units (devices)/month. ASICs manufactured by same process technology are granted as same devices - Beginning of manufacturing by a company and another company starts production within 3 months　　 Technology Requirements Color : - : Manufacturable Solutions are NOT known - : Manufacturable Solutions are known - : Manufacturable Solutions exist, and they are being optimized - Red cannot exist in next 3 years (2001, 2002, 2003) ** - Yellow cannot exist in next 1 year (2001) Red Yellow White ** Exception: Solution NOT known, but does not prevent Production manufacturing ITRS 2001 Renewal Work In Progress - Do Not Publish!