8 Conclusion Creating Incentives & Removing Obstacles

Technology diffusion and unilateral responses to multilateral failures It has not been possible to reach adequate multilateral agreements with respect to: –climate change finance –intellectual property rights for plant varieties –multilateral investment agreement –international trade in environmental goods and services Multilateral progress in all of these areas would facilitate technology diffusion and diminish the need for unilateral action.

Unilateral, multilateral Unilateral measures can serve as catalysts for multilateral action on climate change. Climate change agreements should either comply with or prompt modifications to international economic law. Risk of regulatory capture needs to be addressed for both.

Plurilateral/sectoral alternative Encompassing major players: –environmental goods and services –GHG emissions MFN basis Open for others to join later

Anti-carbon duties ? Antidumping Agreement and the SCM Agreement’s rules on countervailing duties might serve as a model for regulating use anti-carbon duties. Measurement of carbon footprints may be difficult, but investigating authorities are already set up to measure complex economic and legal issues.

‘Climate Sensitivity Index’ Policy depends on maturity of financial markets or national regulatory institutions Incentives to take mitigation and adaptation measures are asymmetrical Developed/developing typology ignores: –the global nature of problem –potential seriousness of the consequences –great variation among countries in vulnerability to and capacity to adapt to climate change –financial and technological endowments of countries change over time Assign responsibility on an objective scale.

Unilateral trade measures Precede with good faith efforts to reach a negotiated solution. Degree of urgency may require greater or lesser effort to negotiate. Apply flexibly to take into account different conditions among countries. Comply with transparency and procedural fairness. Design & apply in accordance with GATT Article XX to minimize risk of regulatory capture.

Uncertain future, grave risks We can estimate: –future GHG concentrations –probability of a range of temperature increases, BUT we cannot say precisely: –what the temperature increase will be, –how that temperature increase will vary from one part of the planet to another –what the ecological and economic effects will be.

Focus on risks, not uncertainty Do not debate whether we have underestimated or overestimated the proximity and severity of these risks. Address risks through mitigation and adaptation: –Create incentives for multilateral action. –Remove obstacles to financing dissemination of mitigation and adaptation technologies.

Thank you!