1. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 1The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Regional Trade Agreements in Asia and The Multilateral Trade System Dr. Brigid Gavin United Nations University Comparative Regional Integration Studies

2. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 2The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Outline of Presentation ‘New Regionalism’ in Asia Assessing the Impact of RTAs WTO Rules on RTAs Implications for the MTS Conclusions

3. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 3The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS New Regionalism in Asia New trend since 1990s ASEAN FTA in 1992 Goal: Economic Community 2020 ASEAN + 3: Framework Agreements with China, Japan and South Korea East Asia: 16 FTAs in exisxtence and 22 under negotiation

4. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 4The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 2 New Aspects New Direction –Traditional strong support for WTO –From multilateralism to regionalism? New Trade Issues –Slow progress at WTO level –RTAs advance on new issues

5. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 5The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS How to assess RTAs? Policy makers: Impact assessment? Traditional approach to tariffs: –Trade creation vs. trade diversion Recent approach to rule-making: –rules for new trade issues? –Coherence or fragmentation for global trade?

6. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 6The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS WTO rules for RTAs RTAs recognised since 1947 WTO rules not clear and precise New Committee on RTAs: 1996 No progress made on systemic rules Current Situation: each RTA judged on inidvidual basis

7. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 7The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Assessing FTAs in Asia Manufacturing –East Asia has already low MFN tariffs –Intensive trade in ‘Factory Asia’ –FTAs will contribute few benefits –Risk: rules of origin will increase costs –Need for pan-Asian system of cumulation

8. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 8The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Agriculture Agricultural trade relatively small Currently: sensitive sector Collapse of Doha Round Changing patterns of production China may become major importer Future: potential for regional trade

9. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 9The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Services Current FTAs: not beyond GATS Services growing faster than goods East Asian countries major exporters 2 models of liberalisation: GATS and NAFTA Implications for financial services?

10. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 10The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Conclusions Too early to say whether ‘building blocks’ or ‘stumbling blocks’ Benefits: ‘faster’ liberalisation as MTS negotiations are stalled Risks: rules of origin and different regulatory models in services

11. United Nations University - Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS 11The United Nations University on Comparative Regional Integration Studies UNU/CRIS Thank you bgavin@cris.unu.edu