1. Overview of Options: Economic Development, Technology, Carbon Markets and Adaptation in a Post-2012 Regime
Aaron Cosbey
Associate, Climate Change and Energy, IISD
Canada and the Post-2012 Climate Regime
COP 11/MOP 1 Side Event, Montreal, Dec. 3, 2005

2. Uncertainty Answering Urgency
The Context:
Uncertainty Answering Urgency
Environmental and development imperatives
Time pressures: from the Berlin Mandate to Kyoto in force was 10 years
Fundamental uncertainties: within Kyoto, within UNFCCC, outside UN, orchestra?
Uncertain approach: targets (what kind?), technology cooperation, market approaches?
IMPERATIVES:
Anything over 2C gets us in trouble – the Atlantic thermohaline current, etc.
So need to cap at 550PPM, but even then only 1 in 16 chance of getting there.
2.8 billion (2 in 5) still on less than $2 a day.
1.6 billion (1/4 of world pop) still lack access to electricity

3. Essentials of an Adequate Approach
Reorient our societies to a sustainable development path, at least cost
Address adaptation
Deploy and diffuse existing technology, develop deploy and diffuse new generation
Employ the market to help achieve UNFCCC objectives
In that context of uncertainty, need to understand what elements have to be part of the resulting approach, esp. if it is a splintered approach. The subsequent presentations will get into the specifics.
First two are basic goals. Second two are essential means. Impossible to think of achieving the goals without these.

4. 1. Reorienting our societies toward sustainable development
Achieve deep cuts
Garner broad participation
Work hard to foster synergies between climate change and development
Minimize economic disruption
Participation: short term architecture must keep the door open for future US involvement, meaningful involvement of developing countries.
Economic disruption: take note of capital stock turnover cycles, use market and invest in tech.

5. 2. Adaptation
Mitigation alone is not enough – we are past the point of impact
Need to integrate adaptation into policy process at local, national and international levels: PRSPs, ODA, national planning, etc.
Huge role for international community: capacity is most needed where vulnerability is greatest
TAR shows that impacts are already here, and more are unavoidable
Need capacity to identify risks, vulnerability, and to identify policies that can address those risks, and then to implement those policies.
So this has to be part of the international regime for climate change – can’t be done unilaterally or even bilaterally.

6. 3. Technology In the short run, use existing technology more widely
In the long run, new generation of tech is the only thing that can deliver deep cuts
Too long-term and risky for private sector alone
International agreement needed to underwrite costs, avoid duplication, agree to broad-access model of IPR.

7. 4. The Market
Market-based mechs like emission trading will be an essential element in keeping costs down.
CDM, for all its faults, is a good example: low cost options, some tech transfer/development
These can only be used if there is some regime that gives value to carbon – whether regional or multilateral.
And they can only be effectively used if there is some signal soon that carbon will have value post-2012.

8. Thank you Aaron Cosbey acosbey@iisd.ca www.iisd.org/climate
Many of these elements will not be achieved by piecemeal efforts, or by dawdling progress. The subsequent presentations will help us think about how the parts can contribute to a whole.