中国碳排放的重新评估 Revisiting of China‘s carbon emissions 刘竹 Dr.Zhu Liu Resnick Postdoctoral Scholar California Institute of Technology Research Associate, Harvard University

2 1.4 gigaton gap of CO 2 in 2010 Dabo Guan, et al. Nature Climate Change 中国碳排放核算的不确定性较高，省级能源数据核算的碳排放总量与 根据国家能源数据核算的碳排放总量相差20% Emission gap between provincial and national inventories 1. 研究背景 Background

研究内容： Research Framework： 估算中国能源消费量 Recalculating energy consumption based on apparent consumption approach 根据实调数据核算能源消费排放因子Estimate national average Emission Factors based on in situ measurements. 核算水泥生产过程排放Recalculating emission from cement production 3

表观能源消费量（本研究所采用）比各省加总能源消费量低5%， 但比全国能源消费量高10% The apparent energy consumption (this study) is 10% higher than national energy consumption (report to UN etc.) and 5% lower than provincial aggregated energy consumption 4

5 Our estimation Previous National Energy Statistics Revised National Energy Statistics 计算结果与最新（2015年11月)的能源统计数据修正相符 Our calculation matches recent revisions of national energy statistics

6 排放因子核算 Emission Factors Estimation 数据：4243个矿点的煤质报告和产量数据 602个样点的实地采样和成分分析数据 Two independent dataset： Coal quality data from 4243 coal mines Sample experiments from 602 sites Zhu Liu, et al, Nature, 2015.(Figure created by Shushi Peng and Steven J. Davis)

7 Carbon content: 23% Carbon content: 85% 中国煤消耗的质量差异巨大 Coal been used in China with various quality Sample photo provided by Jin Bai

8 Results 结果： 中国煤总含碳量值比IPCC低40% The total carbon content of China’s coal based on the data is 40% lower than IPCC suggested value. 中国煤平均热值比IPCC推荐值比IPCC 低45% The heating values of China’s coal based on the data is 45% lower than IPCC suggested value. 含碳量低的主要原因是灰分较高（煤 质差) Low carbon content and heating values are approved by high level of ash content Zhu Liu, et al, Nature, (Figure created by Shushi Peng and Steven J. Davis)

9 排放总量：新研究结果比当前国际数据低10-15%。 Estimates of Chinese CO 2 emissions Total carbon emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and manufacture of cement in China from different sources (IEA, EIA and BP estimates do not include the emission from cement production). Zhu Liu, et al, Nature, 2015.(Figure created by Shushi Peng and Steven J. Davis)

10 Thanks for comments and questions!