1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27,

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27, 2012 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days, across the east Asian monsoon region and Australia, the boreal winter monsoon related rainfall is overall good. However, over southern Asia, particularly over southwestern China, Burma, Laos and vicinity, rainfall is below normal. Severe dryness over western India ad northern China as well as Mongolia continues, however these regions do not receive much rainfall during these boreal winter months.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is continuing its below normal to much below normal characteristics over much of China, India, and other south Asian countries as well as central and western Australia. The rainfall situation over maritime southeast Asian countries around the south China sea region are near to above normal for the 30-day period.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past week, southeastern China and northern Australia received below normal rainfall. Elsewhere the rainfall is at or near normal.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precip over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary During the last 90 days, across the east Asian monsoon region and Australia, the boreal winter monsoon related rainfall is overall good. However, over southern Asia, particularly over southwestern China, Burma, Laos and vicinity, rainfall is below normal. Severe dryness over western India ad northern China as well as Mongolia continues, however these regions do not receive much rainfall during these boreal winter months. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is continuing its below normal to much below normal characteristics over much of China, India, and other south Asian countries as well as central and western Australia. Nevertheless, the rainfall situation over maritime southeast Asian countries around the south China sea region are near to above normal for the 30-day period. During the past week, southeastern China and northern Australia received below normal rainfall. Elsewhere the rainfall is at or near normal. For the period through the 8 th of March, the NCEP GFS model are forecasting above normal rainfall over southeastern China and over much of northern central and southeastern Australia.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology