1 Director’s Update of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction COPC Meeting Offutt Air Force Base May 15-16, 2002 Dr. Louis Uccellini Director, NCEP “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

2 Overview NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security Infrastructure Activities NCEP Implementations Volcanic Ash Model Backup NCEP ACARS Backup NCEP FY02-03 Backup Plans Appendix

3 NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security Phase I –Routine runs of the ARL HYSPLIT dispersion model –Uses output from 12 km Eta model –Runs for 15 sites 4 times daily –Operational – November 2001 Phase II –On call ARL HYSPLIT model run with 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM) 4 km NMM model run available over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR. June 2002

4 4 km NMM Domains

5 Infrastructure Activities New NCEP super-computer and site to be chosen late May or early June Backup NCEP super-computer and site recommendation to senior management planned for late June 2002 – approval awaits congressional action for FY03 budget Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002 Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA - February 2004

Implementations Global Forecast System AVN model has been renamed to the Global Forecast System (GFS) Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002 MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002 Resolution increase from T170L42 (75 km) to T254L64 (55 km) – TBD

Implementations (cont.) Mesoscale Models Eta model resolution increase from 22 km / 50 levels to 12 km / 60 levels – 27 November 2001 RUC model resolution increase from 40 km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002 RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km - June 2002 SREF – Addition of 5 new Eta members with Kain- Fritsch physics – 15 total members – June 2002 Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade - July 2002 Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model in WRF framework– September 2002

Implementations (cont.) Ocean Models New Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS) model - 12 March 2002 –48 hour forecast run once per day at 00 UTC –10 km resolution near shore, 20 km offshore –Parameters include: water temperature, salinity, currents, and surface elevation Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002 Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model - tentative Fall dependent upon conversion to new computer GFDL Hurricane Model Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x 1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (½ deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

9 Volcanic Ash Model Backup For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics - NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to AFWA needed to make graphics acceptable by NWSTG - All requested changes to graphic output have been made NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA have a first draft MOA to finalize and sign

10 NCEP ACARS Backup Current ACARS data are transmitted from ARINC to FAA to NWSTG to NCEP - This complex route results in major outages (several hours) about twice per year Implemented partial backup using AFWA- decoded ACARS – 8 February Uses ARINC to AFWA to NWSTG to NCEP transmission route

11 NCEP ACARS Backup (Cont.) - Only for United Airlines data currently - AFWA plans to decode more after closing Tinker - Research with this backup has already resulted in ARINC improving their service through better data decoding

12 NCEP Use of Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) as a Backup If the NWSTG is down, NCEP would lose CONUS upper air, profiler and METAR data These data are critical for CONUS forecasts NCEP can also obtain these data via a (SBN) NOAAPORT receiver NCEP’s data receipt via the SBN awaits NESDIS providing equipment and service – TBD This backup will be more robust when the backup NCF is operational

13 Appendices Current Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Management Slides Current NCEP Backup

14 JCSDA Goals Increase/accelerate use of research and operational satellite observations in operational models Implement new data/new algorithms into operational models Common modeling infrastructure Common data and telecommunications High-performance computing

15 JCSDA Status Actions underway include DoD and IPO within the JCSDA (Marie Colton, focal point) Progress being made in the implementation of research and operational satellite data in NCEP models Progress being made in “infrastructure” for the “Distributed Center”

16 JCSDA Accomplishments TRMM TMI operational in NCEP system - October 2001 QUIKSCAT operational in NCEP system - January 2002 –3-8% improvement in 10 m winds vs. mid-latitude deep ocean buoys at h; 7-17% improvement for MSLP Ready for AIRS –Running “simulated instrument” Surface emissivity models being tested Science-Model Assessment:

17 JCSDA Accomplishments Computer installed (at NASA) and enhanced comms network established to deliver AIRS/MODIS to NCEP within 180 minutes of ingest Community-based fast radiative transfer model documented and delivered to all members (being tested for AIRS). –First step in the use of radiance data in NWP –Critical factor in accelerated assessment of AIRS and decision to process for use in operations Internet 2 access being built to connect member institutions NCEP model ported to NASA/GSFC, now used in parallel/research mode Infrastructure:

18 Current NCEP Backup NCEP Model Substitute Model Data –12 km Eta => AFWA 45km –T170 GFS 4 Daily => Navy NOGAPS to 384 hours T159 2 daily –Wave Model => Navy WW3 same model –GFDL Hurricane => Navy GFDN Hurricane –RUC 20 Km => FSL RUC same model 40 KM –Ensembles => No backup available –WAFS Grids, Fax and Graphics => UKMET –VAFTAD => AFWA PUFF