Update on Short-term Migration Research Jonathan Smith & Amanda Sharfman

Presentation Overview Context Progress to date Definition development Next steps

User Requirements Measuring increased international migration Understanding reasons for increase Uses: –National –Local

Current Statistical Product Set Long-Term Migration Estimates Used in mid-year population estimates & projections Total International Migration uses many sources –Principally International Passenger Survey (IPS) based Estimates of Visits Used in Balance of Payments Based on IPS Counts visits rather than visitors

International Passenger Survey (IPS) Passengers surveyed as they enter/leave the UK Covers principal airports, sea routes and Channel Tunnel 250,000 face-to-face interviews Approximately 1% of sample are ‘long-term’ migrants ‘Intended Flow’ – based on migrants’ intentions at beginning of trip ‘Completed Flow’ – based on migrants’ actual behaviour when returning

Measuring migration using IPS Long term migration –Migrant may not return home –Based on intentions Short term migration –Migrant will complete their stay within 12 months –Can be based on: Intentions – more timely Completions – more accurate

Definition overview UN definition of a short-term migrant "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months) except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage“ Two dimensions required - Length of stay - Reason for visit

Definition development Visitors / Temporary residents / Usual residents Length of stay 0-12 months 1-12 months 3-12 months Reasons for visit Workers Students ‘Other visitors’ UN definition reasons for visit

Feedback from Feasibility Report UN definition Central Government Broaden to 0-12 month stays Specific interest in workers and UN definition Local Government Broadening reasons for visit Interest in broadening to include 1-12 month stays

UN definition based short-term migration in-flow estimates, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

‘Other visits’ in-flow estimates, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

Proportion of in-flow moves by reason, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

Summary of proposed definitions UN definition Workers Students ‘Other visits’ Two length of stay periods 1-12 months 3-12 months

Next steps Research report (October 2007) Proposed definitions England & Wales flow estimates mid04 and mid05 England & Wales stock estimates mid04 and mid05 Methodology for estimating stocks Sub-national methodology Timeliness ‘Experimental Statistics’