Responding to Climate Change: Constraints and Adaptive Capacity Alan Foreman ESP Seminar

Current Adaptive Measures What is an ‘adaptation’? –Altering ‘decision environments’ –Physical changes –Policy changes Reactive vs anticipatory

Assessing Adaptations Temporal perspective: –Current variability –Observed trends in past climate –Anticipatory modeling Other perspectives

Current Adaptations - Interannual variability ENSO –Improved forecasting and information dissemination Problems: –Spatial uncertainties in forecasts –Low awareness/coordination –Social drivers

Current Adaptations - Observed Past Trends Developing vs non-developing contexts –OECD countries –Developing countries

Adapting for the Future Usually adaptations for future events are triggered by current extreme events –Heat waves –Implicit recognition of problems for public health Long lived infrastructure: –Developed countries –Sea level rise Policy: –Impact assessments –Water management plans

Costs Difficulties in measuring cost/benefit –Costs can be quantified in monetary terms –Benefits are in terms of avoided climatic impacts

Adaptive Capacity General trends vs specific adaptations –Inter- and intra- regional variations –Specific solutions –Limitations Diversity of impacts, options, and complexity of adaptation processes Errors in studies from assuming perfect adaptation

Estimating Adaptive Capacity Economic development Technology Governance structures Social values, perceptions and customs

Adaptive Capacity in Developing Nations Often context-specific Heterogenous within a locality –Age, class, gender, social status Temporal fluctuations –Current adaptive capacities can be altered by policy directives, social trends, or violent conflict

Limits to Adaptation Technological –Social context and decision making –Technologically feasible vs. achievable Financial –Local communities

Informational Barriers Knowledge does not always lead to implementation Perceptions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity differ Perceptions of risk differ –Not a ‘here-and-now’ problem Local social institutions

Conclusions Adaptation is being undertaken in both developed and developing countries –Usually a response to already evident climate change Capacity for adaptation is dependent on more than simple economic barriers Emphasis on local understanding

Questions How much can we depend on predictions of adaptive capacity? Is there an optimal course of action for adapting to climate change in developing countries, given the financial barriers that they may face? Can a solely response-based adaptation policy be avoided?