Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options Nathan Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, CSIRO MAR

 The Players  Key user questions  Research Activities  Downscaling and global signals  Tasmanian context  Research outcome and outputs  Resources Introduction

Key User Questions:Climate Change Water policy and legislation Water management and infrastructure Power Generation Reservoirs, winds Power Distribution (heat waves) Emergency planning Bushfires, floods Protection of high value assets From tourism Impacts on power and water dependent industry Agriculture Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease Sea level surges (from wind changes)

The Players

Research activities Fine scale climate projections Modelling water flows and reservoirs Key climate variables Planning, agriculture, utility sectors and environment Extreme events Changes in occurrence Consequence of change Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves Storms/winds Research Modules

Fine Scale Climate Projections What is downscaling CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model CSIRO MAR (John McGregor) Validation phase IPCC – models are used Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios

Climate models, and climate model credibility Observations Mean Model

Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9 Projections of Future Changes in Climate Tasmania

Example from South West Australia

The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI. Drought is increasing most places

AWBM Assumption: no change in land use Tasmania Water Catchment Models

 Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows  Factors <1.0 represents drying  Factors >1.0 represents wetter  Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted  Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow Prediction Most important lake

Key Outputs  Outputs  Assessments of climate conditions to 2100  Reports on future projections  Estimates of uncertainties, and mean projections  Input to operational models (Hydro, DPIW, TIAR)  Model outputs more generally.  Communication  Engagement from start, users and researchers  Liason officer  Governance model

Resources  5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project management team  Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises  $8 million over three years (cash + inkind)  Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)  Potential Collaborations  CERF funded projects  Other initiatives (eg SEACI).

Calibration

Spatial patterns: greater warming over land, greater warming at high latitudes Albedo changes in high latitudes, less snow and sea-ice. Figure SPM-5, TS-28, 10.8, Projections of Future Changes in Climate High Emissions Low Emissions

Scenarios for Extremes- frost, heat waves, growth

National Action Plan (NAP) Region: 14 surface water hydrological models were developed. 1.Models enable generation of flow data for scenarios: Scenario 1: Natural flow Scenario 2: Current flow Scenario 3 : Current flow with EWR provisions. 2.Calculation of indices for catchment flow characteristics.

Hydrologic modelling Flow generation Current models are simple rainfall-runoff water balance models (AWBM) Platform for incorporating landuse impacts Surface-groundwater interaction