1. Climate Change in Scotland / UK / N. Europe
David Stevenson
School of GeoSciences
University of Edinburgh

2. Measured temperature trends
(IPCC, 2007)

3. (IPCC, 2007) Scottish Temperature 1914-2005 (Scottish Executive, 2006)
(Environment
Agency, 2010)
(Palutikof, 2000)
(IPCC, 2007)

4. Spring is getting earlier!

6. N. Europe likely to warm by 2-5C by 2100
Ranges for different emission scenarios
Model range in red,
Observations in black
Model range in orange
(IPCC, 2007)

7. Projected warming, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario
Winter
Summer
Scotland projected to warm 2-3°C over the next century
(IPCC, 2007)

8. Projected changes in precipitation, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario
Winter
Summer
Scotland: wetter winters; possibly drier summers, but less consensus
(IPCC, 2007)

9. Winter Summer
Present-day climate

10. Winter Summer
Carbon dioxide doubling: winter +3oC, summer +3oC

11. Summary
Scotland likely to warm ~2.5C by 2100 (also more extreme heat-waves)
Winter precipitation increases
Summer precipitation may decrease
Precipitation intensity increases – flash-floods
Snow declines
Sea-level rise partly mitigated by uplift (post-glacial rebound) – coastal floods
Scotland is perhaps relatively the least impacted region of N. Europe?
Impacts: Agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, immigration…

12. Where is the current climate best matched to the UK climate of the future?
Broadmeadow et al 2003, Climate change and broadleaved tree species

13. Scottish precipitation 1914-2008
Increase since 1970 – mostly in winter precipitation
Intensity of individual events has increased
Consistent with model predictions of climate change