An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 35t h Session of the EMEP Steering Body Geneva, Sep 5-7, 2011

SO 2 emissions in Western Europe (EU15+2): A 1970’s perspective and actual development to 2010 Source: IIASA

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030 Baseline assumes current MS policies, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase Saturation of transport demand after 2020 Energy use by fuel Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDPMileage per person

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development Less cows and cattle, more pigs Strong increase in bio-fuel production More land area for crops and wood production Livestock numbers Wood production Bio-fuel production

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection (= Gothenburg revision baseline) Most air pollutant emissions will decline Baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC directive Strong decline in SO 2, NO x, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020 Only little change in NH 3 after 2010 SO 2 NH 3 VOCPM2.5 NO x

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection Impact indicators will decline too All impact indicators will decline to 2030 New in EC4MACS: Assessment for Natura2000 areas Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020 EutrophicationAcidification

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection But damage costs remain substantial Damage costs of air pollution in the EU-27

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

Cause-specific mortality method suggests larger health effects from PM than earlier all-cause approach Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM2.5 in 2000 Source: CIAM report 2/2011 for TFH 2011

Findings: Some key problem areas in the future Air quality: -Urban air quality (PM, NO2) -Nitrogen Climate: –Climate targets for 2050 require fundamental structural measures in the near term -Land use emissions/sinks critical for further agreements Interactions between air quality policies and climate strategies

Priority areas for further EMEP and WGE work from an integrated assessment perspective EMEPWGE PM Close the gap between observations and model results, also in urban areas Health impacts from PM (cause-specific mortality, transferability, morbidity) Ozone Explain historic ozone trends and source attribution: hemispheric - European – local Demonstrate health and vegetation benefits of further ozone reductions EutrophicationCommunication to public AcidificationDemonstrate benefits of further emission controls