9 th January 08 A Quarterly Expenditure Measure for GDP for Scotland SESCG

Page 1 Best practice - IMF guidance Accurate and timely data, not indirect techniques Consistent with annual equivalents Revisions necessary and made in a transparent manner Presented as a consistent time series Sub components of GDP are also important series Unadjusted data are the first and primary requirement

Page 2 Requirements – Current Price GDP (E) series Current price GDP (E) Requirement Availability Base year GDP (E) 4 Paasche price series 6 Laspeyresquantity series ?

Page 3 Requirements – Constant Price GDP (E) series Constant price GDP (E) Requirement Availability Base year GDP (E) (e.g. 2003) volume inflators 4

Page 4 Key expenditure components for volume inflation Input-Output used to identify key components of demand Source search to identify available proxy indicators Increasing coverage of sources will increase accuracy Assessment of sources using ESA / SNA indicators Relevance Accuracy Timeliness & punctuality Comparability (Excl. accessibility & clarity as ex post indicators)

Page 5 Summary of available sources

Page 6 Conclusions Best: volume indicators for key components of final demand Scotland has available data to deliver such a series Meeting IMF guidelines: Constant price series Base year and volume inflation Individual series for demand components Comparability for UK benchmarking Importance of base year weights from IO tables Same source but different weights for GDP (E) and (O)

Page 7 Recommendations / next steps Scoping focus was to identify a positive way forward No figures produced Recommend development of an in-house pilot series How best to deliver? Issue of imports and exports to be discussed: Good export data, but weaker on imports Merit in individual series if not entire GDP (E) E.g. improvement of investment data