1. Quarterly National Accounts
Nico van Stokrom

2. Quarterly National Accounts
Agenda
Introduction
Methodology in practice
Compilation -> Balancing -> Publication
Six-pack of SUT/QNA + excercise
Benchmarking
Acceleration to t+30
Special items

3. Introduction Quarterly national accounts
Provide a comprehensive, quantitative, systematic and consistent description of the economy on a quarterly basis
Main purpose: measurement of GDP growth
Publication as soon as possible

4. Brief history of Dutch QNA
March 1986: first press release 1985 QII, regular estimate T+110
Quarterly series back to 1977
1993: First publication of flash estimate 1992 QIV (T+55); only volume growth of GDP, both original T/(T-4) and seasonally adjusted T/(T-1)
1996: Transition from I/O-tables to SUT
1999: Publication of more detailed flash estimates (QII)
2001: Acceleration, flash estimate T+45, regular estimate T+90
2010/2011: Experimental flash estimates T+30 (reporting period 2010)
October 2013: Restart experimental flash estimates T+30 (from 2013 QIII)

5. Introduction QNA publications Germany Statistisches Bundesambt t+45
Italy
Istat
Belgium
Nationale Bank België / Instituut voor Nationale Rekeningen
t+45 
Switserland
Bundesambt fur Statistik - US
Bureau of Economic Analyses
t+30 UK
Office for National Statistics
t+25

6. Introduction Main users of QNA information
Dutch press and public in general
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB, forecasts)
Dutch Central Bank
Private enterprises
Eurostat
European Central Bank
Other international organisations (OECD, IMF, UN etc.)

7. Methodology Dutch QNA Planning (Q)NA t+45 QNA flash estimate
t QNA revised estimate
February: first annual estimate based on the revised estimates of the first three quarters and the flash estimate of the fourth quarter
March: second annual estimate based on the updated revised estimates of the first three quarters and the revised estimate of the fourth quarter
June: provisional annual estimate (third annual estimate)
t+1,5 Revised provisional annual estimate
t+2,5 Definitive provisional estimate
t+ … Revision

8. Methodology Dutch QNA 1 Compilation of data
Adjustments to meet the (Q)NA requirements
Important tools
2 Balancing procedure
Balancing for each commodity
GDP: result of production and expenditure
Plausibility checks
3 Publication
- Communication

9. Methodology Dutch QNA: sources
Compilation - Balancing Publication
Mostly from Statistics Netherlands: sample surveys mostly sales and turnover (not for all types of industries), price statistics
Other institutions e.g. Central Bank, branch organisations
Administrative data (e.g. VAT records, business accounts, accounts of central government)
Extrapolation and projection techniques

10. Methodology Dutch QNA: adjustments
Compilation - Balancing Publication
Adjustments to meet the (Q)NA requirements (by the branch and final expenditure specialists)
Check data for continuity
Complete the data
Check data for plausibility
Adapt data to definitions and classifications

11. Methodology Dutch QNA: tools
Compilation - Balancing Publication
Important tools
Generally applied definitions
Classification of goods and services and value added components
Classification of economic activities
Register of economic actors grouped according to their principle activity

12. Compilation - Balancing - Publication
Methodology Dutch QNA
Compilation - Balancing Publication
National accounts ‘identity’
Economy (value added) = Y
Production approach Expenditure approach
Y = P – IC Y = C + I + (E-M)
Integration  P + M = IC +C + I + E or
supply = use
A specialist for each branche and expenditure category
Examples: agriculture,manufacture of chemicals,consumption

13. Methodology Dutch QNA Compilation - Balancing - Publication
Quarterly SUT as a tool for integration of short term statistics (monthly/quarterly)
Fill SUT with basic data usually turnover (output)
Add expenditure data
Separate information on wages and labour
In case lack of information: assumptions (e.g. constant input output ratio’s) + additional calculations
Result is an unbalanced SUT with discrepancies between supply and use of commodities

14. Methodology Dutch QNA Building SUT: base SUT same quarter t-1
Compilation - Balancing Publication
Building SUT: base SUT same quarter t-1
Volume-indicators  SUT in COP year t-1
Inflating SUT in CUP year t-1 + value indicators  SUT in current prices
Eliminating discrepancies in a process of simultaneous balancing in CUP and COP
Exactly the same method (e.g. detail level) for regular and for flash estimates

15. Methodology Dutch QNA
Compilation - Balancing - Publication

16. Is one of the special items
Methodology Dutch QNA
Compilation - Balancing Publication
Is one of the special items

17. Methodology Dutch QNA
‘Six–pack’ of SUT/QNA

18. The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA
Value Index

19. The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA
Option 1: in quarterly prices

20. The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA
Option 2: in average year prices

21. Exercise on beer production
 2010 QI
QII
Year
Quantity in litres
500
1.000
Price per litre
€ 1,00
€ 2,00 X
Average year price X 
Production value CUP
Production value at average year prices
 2011
400
600
€ 2,50  X
Production value CP at quarterly prices
Production value CP at average year prices

22. Exercise on beer production
 2010 QI
QII
Year
Quantity in litres
500
1.000
Price per litre
€ 1,00
€ 2,00 X
Average year price
€ 1,50 X 
Production value CUP
€ 500
€ 1000
€ 1500
Production value at average year prices
€ 750
 2011
400
600
€ 2,50  X
Production value CP at quarterly prices
Production value CP at average year prices

23. Exercise on beer production
 2010 QI
QII
Year
Quantity in litres
500
1.000
Price per litre
€ 1,00
€ 2,00 X
Average year price
€ 1,50 X 
Production value CUP
€ 500
€ 1000
€ 1500
Production value at average year prices
€ 750
 2011
400
600
€ 2,50  X
€ 800
€ 2300
Production value CP at quarterly prices
€ 400
€ 1200
€ 1600
Production value CP at average year prices
€ 600
€ 900

24. The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly prices
Year
The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly prices
CUP
800
200 pi
CUP
1.500
125 pi
CUP
2.300
144 pi
COP
400
voi
COP
1.200
voi
COP
1.600
voi
CUP
kt-4
500
160
vai
CUP
kt-4
1.000
150
vai
CUP
kt-4
1.500
153
vai

25. The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly pices
Year
The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly pices
Quarter 1
CUP
800
200 pi
CUP
1.500
125 pi
CUP
2.300
144 pi
COP
400 80
voi
COP
1.200
120
voi
COP
1.600
107
voi
CUP
kt-4
500
160
vai
CUP
kt-4
1.000
150
vai
CUP
kt-4
1.500
153
vai

26. The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices
Quarter 2
Year
The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices
Quarter 1
CUP
800
133 pi
CUP
1.500
167 pi
CUP
2.300
153 pi
COP
600
voi
COP
900
voi
COP
1.500
voi
COP
kt-4
750
160
vai
COP
kt-4
750
150
vai
COP
kt-4
1.500
153
vai

27. The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Year
The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices
CUP
800
133 pi
CUP
1.500
167 pi
CUP
2.300
153 pi
COP
600 80
voi
COP
900
120
voi
COP
1.500
100
voi
COP
kt-4
750
160
vai
COP
kt-4
750
150
vai
COP
kt-4
1.500
153
vai

28. Benchmarking
February year t+1: first annual estimate year t by adding Q1(R), Q2(R), Q3(R), Q4(F) (basis is definitive year t-3)
March year t+1: finalizing year t-1, benchmarking 4 quarters year t-1 (basis is definitive year t-2) and subsequently the 4 quarters of year t
June year t+1: the adjusted 4 quarters of year t are the basis for the first provisional annual estimate of year t. These once more adjusted 4 quarters of year t serve as a basis of the 4 quarters of year t+1

29. Accelerated flash estimate
Acceleration to t+30 and test estimates
Theory
Sources and source coverage
Test estimates in 2011
Reliability
Recommendations

30. Accelerated flash estimate
Relative source coverage production side
▪ Producers of goods
▪ Producers of commercial services
▪ Producers of non-commercial services

31. Accelerated flash estimate
Relative source coverage expenditure side
▪ Consumption ▪ Trade balance services
▪ Stock changes ▪ Investments
▪ Trade balance goods

32. Accelerated flash estimate
Source coverage GDP growth
Coverage Δ GDP
Production goods
Production commercial services
Productie non-commercial services
T+21
21%
16% 5% 0%
T+28
34%
17%
12%
T+75
69%
22%
42%
Coverage
Consumption
Investments
Δ stocks
Trade
Δ GDP
households
government
Balance
Goods
Services
T+21
23%
12% 0% 2% 8%
T+28
34%
15% 6% 3%
10%
T+75
51%
20% 9% 4%

33. Publication procedure QNA
Publication program:
Inform press officer
Editing press release (flash)
Editing report on adjustments (revised estimate)
Try outs press conference
Release: press conference and press release

34. Quality and adjustments
Year
Economic growth
Bias
1991
2,2
0,0
1992
2,1
0,3
1993
0,8
0,6
1994
3,2
1,0
1995
2,3
-0,1
1996
3,1
0,5
1997
3,8
0,9
1998
4,4
1999
4,0
0,4
2000
3,5
-0,2
2001
1,4
2002
0,1
2003
1,1
2004
2005
2,0
2006
3,4
2007
3,9
2008
1,8 
  ,2
2009
-3,7 
  ,3
2010
1,5
2011 (Provisional)
-0,3
2012 (Provisional)
-1,2

35. Quality and adjustments
Y-O-Y
2003
GDP
Q-O-Q
QNA NA Q1
-0,3
0,8
0,2 Q2
-0,9
-0,2
-0,5 Q3
-1,1
0,1 Q4
0,7
0,3
0,6 Y
-0,8
GFCFcorp
GFCFgov
-6,3
-5,8
-5,5
-1,2
-3,8
-3,5
-4,8
-2,2
-1,9
1,0
-2,0
3,6
1,2
2,3
-3,6
-2,7
0,4

36. Quality and adjustments
Y-O-Y
2003
Consumption (hh)
Consumption (government)
QNA NA Q1
0,3
0,5
2,4
3,2 Q2
-1,2
2,5
2,1 Q3
-1,4
-0,6
2,7
2,6 Q4
-1,8
-0,7
2,3
3,8 Y
-1,3
-0,2
2,9
Import
Export
3,5
1,3
0,9
-1,7
0,4
-1,5
2,0
3,6 1
1,8
1,5