1Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM OFCM Special Session: Uncertainty in Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) Models Setting the.

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1Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM OFCM Special Session: Uncertainty in Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) Models Setting the Stage Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology In conjunction with the 9 th Annual GMU Conference on Transport and Dispersion Modeling July 19, 2005

2Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Acknowledgements Special Thanks to: Dr. Zafer Boybeyi George Mason University Members of the Joint Action Group for Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models Members of the Joint Action Group for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (Research and Development Plan) (JAG/ATD(R&DP))

3Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Outline OFCM Overview Accomplishments in Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) Session Objectives The Way Ahead

4Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM OFCM Overview -- Mission To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies High-level focus on: – Needs and Requirements – Issues and Problems – Studies, Reports, Plans, and Handbooks – Crosscut Reviews, Assessments, and Analyses

5Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM FEDERAL METEOROLOGICAL COORDINATING INFRASTRUCTURE Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Standing Committees Program Councils National Space Weather Program National Aviation Weather Program Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs Operational Processing Centers Environmental Information Systems and Communications Integrated Observing Systems Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services Cooperative Research Working Group for Environmental Support to Homeland Security

6Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Departments of: Agriculture Commerce Defense Energy Homeland Security FEMA Coast Guard Interior State Transportation Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation National Transportation Safety Board Nuclear Regulatory Commission Independent agencies: Executive Office of the President: Office of Management and Budget Office of Science and Technology Policy OFCM Partners Coordinating Infrastructure

7Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Accomplishments In January 2002, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of ATD Models (JAG/SEATD) In August 2002, JAG/SEATD published its report: Atmospheric Modeling from Weapons of Mass Destruction: Response by Federal Agencies in Support of Homeland Security. The FCMSSR endorsed this report in October 2002 In June 2003, OFCM conducted a special session at the 7 th Annual GMU Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) Conference as a first step in addressing the JAG/SEATD report’s recommendations In October 2003, formed the Joint Action Group for ATD Modeling (Research and Development Plan)

8Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Accomplishments In July 2004, OFCM conducted a special session at the 8 th Annual GMU AT&D Conference to: –Present the results of the JAG/ATD(R&DP) –Receive feedback in time for incorporation in the final report –Provide an opportunity for DHS/S&T to describe the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) In September 2004, OFCM published the JAG/ATD(R&DP) report, Federal Research and Development Needs and Priorities for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (FCM-R ). The FCMSSR endorsed this report in December 2004 In September 2004, OFCM conducted a national, multi-sector conference on urban meteorology, Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Forum for Users and Providers

9Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Session Objectives Facilitate a discussion of uncertainties in ATD modeling systems that: –Incorporates academic and private sector inputs –Accounts for uncertainty in meteorological observations and models and in dispersion models Help Federal agencies striving to improve their ATD modeling systems to implement the recommendations made by the OFCM JAG/ATD(R&DP)

10Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM The Way Ahead Complete the strategy for ATD modeling improvements and present it to the FCMSSR. Key elements of the strategy are: –A core set of ATD modeling systems –Recovery of existing ATD data –Common framework for model evaluation –ATD Test Beds

11Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM The Way Ahead Through partnership and collaboration within the Federal meteorological community and its customers, OFCM will: –Continue to identify shortfalls in urban meteorology –Help to organize improvements across all applicable focus areas that will better support users in the urban environment

12Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Backup Slides

13Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Aviation Weather Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services Cooperative Research Environmental Services Environmental Support to Homeland Security Information Technology and Communications Modeling and Prediction Observing Capabilities Space Weather Weather Information for Surface Transportation OFCM Overview -- Key Focus Areas and Agency Priorities

14Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM US Weather Research Program (USWRP) US Climate Change Science Program (USCCSP) National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) National Research Council (NRC) Climate Research Committee (CRC) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) University Corp. for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) American Meteorological Society (AMS) OFCM Affiliations Coordinating Infrastructure George Mason University (GMU)