Options for sustainable water provision for agricultural use Key driver for poverty eradication” SPATIAL MISMATCH BETWEEN WATER RESOURCES AND WATER DEMAND Harry Pheko, ROD

Facts At-A-Glance 330 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to improved sources of drinking water. Only 60% of SSA people use improved sources of improved DW despite an increase of 11 points since 1990. At this pace SSA will not reach the MDG targets of halving by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to improved DW : it is estimated that only 26 countries out of 53 will attain the MDG goals.

PRESENTATION OUTLINE Objective Background Water Resources (WR)Distribution Water Demand (WD)Distribution Supply and demand clustering Observations

OBJECTIVE The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the spatial variation in water supply and demand across Botswana and to assess the implications for future water resources development

BACKGOUND The recent downward turn of the global economy, which has resulted in less than stellar performance of the mining sector, forced the government to embark on a diversification drive aimed at reducing reliance on the mining sector. Among the strategic initiatives to realize this has been the drive to resuscitate agriculture sector. The contribution of agriculture sector to the Botswana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has declined from a high of 42.7% in 1966 to a current level of 3%.

BACKGOUND The move to improved agriculture output has been linked to the broader goal of the poverty eradication initiatives The resuscitation of this Agricultural initiative requires water resources However, this agric resuscitation is going to face high competition for the scarce water resource from non- agricultural activities such as mining

Water resources - Rainfall distribution There is a northeast-southwest gradation of mean annual rainfall represented by a line from Kasane (650 mm) to Bokspits (170mm) Over 90% of the rainfall occurs in the summer months. Sometimes, 70% to 90% of the annual total rainfall may occur in only one month. Rainfall incidence is highly variable both spatially and temporally.  Rainfall is very variable both in space and time. It does not rain that much in Botswana

Water resources Groundwater Resources The map shows major abstractions and groundwater potential Abstraction mainly on the eastern corridor Some of the major abstraction occur in the two diamond mines. Area of high potential appear on the central part of the country Groundwater resources Area of high potential

Percentage (%) full (2012/9/17) Water resources - dams Dam FSC (MCM) Impoundment (MCM) Percentage (%) full (2012/9/17) Gaborone 141.4 57.19 39.97 Nnywane 2.3 0.9 37.8 Shashe 85.3 60.92 71.14 Bokaa 18.5 Failed Letsibogo 100 30.36 28.4 Ntimbale 26.5 20.65 77.1 Molatedi 201 93.4 45.9 Dikgathong 400 New dam Thuni 90 New Dam Has agric component Lotsane 40

Result in Surplus & deficit terms Wastewater Treated effluent represents 16% of all water resources in the country by volume. (NWMP 2006) Francistown (10Ml/d) and Gaborone (44Ml/d) plants has the most significant quantities of effluent. Most treatment plant facilities are located on the eastern corridor. Result in Surplus & deficit terms

Demand - Population distribution Population is congregated in the eastern region of the country. In 2001, 87% of the population were located in the Eastern and South-Eastern Planning Regions The Northern Region, which includes the fertile Okavango Delta, had 8.5% of the country’s population, while the Western Region, which is dominated by the Kalahari Desert, is sparsely populated. A similar kind of distribution pattern is seen in 2011 population census

Water Demand Current country water demand 250Mm3/annum

Summary of supply and demand .

Summary of supply and demand . Cluster Number Water Demand (All units m3/day) Water Resource (All units m3/day) Available for Export (m3/day) Comment 1 - Kgalagadi South 2,740 No regional water resources available -2,740 Tsabong currently provided for by a sort of small 'wellfield' - series of spread out boreholes 2 - Greater Gaborone 70,800 - Gaborone 115,500 - Rest of Cluster 186,300 - in Total 74,400 -111,900 Assumes average inflow into both Gaborone and Bokaa Dam 3 - Jwaneng 34,00 - Jwaneng Mine 5,700 - Rest of Cluster 39,700 inTotal 65,000 39,000 Assumes large operational wellfield developed at Botlhalotlau 4 - Mahalapye 42,700 40,000 -2,700 Assumes full high pumping resource from Masama expansion 5 - Serowe - Palapye 30,100 12,800 -17,300  

Summary of supply and demand . Cluster Number Water Demand (All units m3/day) Water Resource (All units m3/day) Available for Export (m3/day) Comment 8 - Phikwe 40,300 - BCL Mine 4,600 - Rest of Cluster 44,900 - in Total 53,300 8,400 Letsibogo Dam main resource 9 - Francistown 46,100 221,700 175,600 Assumes Lower Shashe Dam Completed - Lower Shashe Dam on boundary of Cluster 8 and 9 11- Nata/Gweta 6,300 32,700 26,400 Assumes Mosetse Dam and Gweta developed 13 - Orapa 48,200 - Orapa Mine 3,200 - Rest of Cluster 51,400 - in Total 43,000 -8,400 Assumes Letlhakane Mine closed. Flat rate for Orapa - does not include Saline Option 14 - Kasane 2,900 Extensive from Chobe Uncertain and not included in study Potentially huge transfer from Congo and Chobe 15 - Maun 15,200 22,000 6,800 Assumes new wellfields Gomoti, Kunyere all developed 16 - Ngamiland 5,900 30,000 24,100 Extensive Groundwater available although not developed at all 17 - Ghanzi - Kang 5,400 22,900 17,500 Ncojane Basin fully developed

Result in Surplus & deficit terms Shashe and Lower Shashe Dams Greater Gaborone Source : Costing of the Botswana Water Supply and Demand Clusters Investigation Draft Final Report - October 2008 Water Surveys Botswana (Pty) Ltd in Association with Bergstan Africa (Pty) Ltd

OBSERVATIONS . There is a spatial mismatch between the demand and water supply aspects The supply surplus and more resources tends to be focused towards the north of the country (mismatch) The demands deficit tends towards the south Other water needs like EFR and Agricultural requirements needs to be factored in the mismatch Most deficit 131900m3/day is located on the Limpopo basin

Implications of the mismatch . Costly Potential transfer schemes to meet the demand There will always be competition with other needs as per the Water Policy Skewed migration of people and industry to the more urbanized eastern side of the country increasing demand Scheme TS1 Etsha – Ghanzi – Kang - Kanye TS8 Molopo - Tsabong Cost (x1000 Pula) 16,479,261 793,502 Rounded (Pula) 16.5 Billion 794 Million

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