Freshmen On-Track Analysis: Summary of Findings and Implications for Leadership

“Information is just a tool, and like any tool, it is only as powerful as the use to which it is put.”

What we aimed to do What we were able to do Implications for moving forward

What we aimed to do 1. Address district goal to improve graduation rates by describing current 9 th grade students’ on-track status. 2. Using research-based methodology, examine cohort attendance, credit accumulation rate, and number of Fs in a core course.

What we aimed to do, cont. 3. Call out Native American students’ on-track status. 4. Identify gaps and glitches in our data collection processes. 5. Establish a template for monitoring 9 th grade students’ on-track status.

I.Discovery What do the data tell us? II. Experimentation What are appropriate, research-based interventions? III.Evaluation How do we refine and improve our models? Part of a Larger Strategy

What we were able to do 1. Compare student absence rates, credit accumulation rates, and course failure rates by ethnicity and ELL status. 2. Compare relationship between student extracurricular activity engagement and dropout risk. 3. Highlight number of students who are overage upon entry to 9 th grade and late entry ELL.

Primary Findings  Large segments of the 9 th grade cohort have failed at least one core course.

Percentage of Core Courses Failed for Students by Ethnicity

Primary Findings  ELL students’ core course failure rate puts them at risk.

Percentage of Core Courses Failed by ELL Students

Primary Findings, contd.  Native American and Black 9 th graders have the highest absence rate among all student groups.

Primary Findings, contd.  Troubling gap between credits attempted and credits earned for Native American, Black, and ELL students.

Mean Credits Attempted and Accrued by Student Ethnicity

Secondary Findings  Participation in school- sponsored extracurricular activity may correlate with fewer absences and higher credit accumulation rates among non-ELL students.

Non-ELL Students’ Mean Number of Fall 2009 Semester Absences by Extracurricular Participation

Non-ELL Students’ Mean Number of Spring 2010 Semester Absences by Extracurricular Participation

Non-ELL Students’ Mean Course Credit Accumulation Rates by Extracurricular Participation

Secondary Findings, contd.  Late entry into ELL and overage in 9 th grade are indicators to watch.

ELL Student Placement by Year (N=140)

Age of Non-ELL Ninth Grade Class by Ethnicity (N=1,049)

Limitations 1. Data files were incomplete. 2. Policy decision to remove Hispanic as its own distinct ethnic code meant we could not analyze Hispanic student performance.

Implications for moving forward Technical Recommendations: 1.Assess the trade-offs for eliminating Hispanic as an exclusive ethnic code. 2.Establish routine data collection, reporting, and monitoring on key 9 th grade predictor variables. 3.Fill in the missing data.

Implications for moving forward, contd. 4. Conduct secondary analyses to determine correlation and statistical significance between variables. 5. Watch closely attendance patterns and credits attempted v credits earned by subgroup.

Implications for moving forward Student-centered Recommendations: 1.Strengthen supports for students in core courses. 2.Direct an attendance campaign that specifically targets African American and Native American students.

Implications for moving forward, contd. Student-centered Recommendations: 3. Provide multiple opportunities for students to recover credits in the 9 th grade.