1. College-Going Diagnostic Results Examining On-Track Status in WCPSS Darryl Hill, Office of Chief of Staff Matt Lenard, Data and Accountability High School API Meeting| October 8, 2015 Logo cover

2. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence The College-Going Diagnostic Pathway (ON-TRACK STATUS) Source: Strategic Data Project

3. College-Going Pathway Trends

4. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence District Average data sources: 2008-09 first-time ninth graders. Post-secondary enrollment outcomes from NSC matched records. All other district data from WCPSS administrative records. Results exclude students who transferred out of WCPSS. State Average and U.S Average data sources: 2006-07 first-time ninth graders; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

6. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

7. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

8. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

9. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence 90

10. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

11. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence Pathway Trends: Key Findings WCPSS exceeded state and national averages throughout the ninth-grade to college persistence pathway Less than half of students with off-track status graduated on time and only 13% of these persisted into 2nd year of college Black and Hispanic students progressed from ninth grade into the 2nd year of college at rates about half their White and Asian counterparts Students classified as ELL in their last year persisted at rates about three-quarters lower than the district average and two-thirds lower than their former ELL counterparts

12. On-Track Status

13. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence Decision Rules Created an “on-track” indicator using total credits and course requirements in English and Mathematics Attempted to identify Career Prep and College Tech Prep Excluded alternative schools and Wake Early College Excluded transfers-in and transfers-out Cannot determine credit and course patterns for transfers-in Cannot follow transfers-out to determine recovery and graduation rates Analysis focused on 2009-10 ninth-grade cohort

14. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence How SDP Defines On-Track Status Graduation requirements were determined using guidelines for the 2009-10 ninth-grade cohort. These requirements differ by school and course of study. Year in High SchoolMath CreditsELA CreditsTotal Credits First Year116.5 Second Year2213 Third Year3319.5 Graduation4426 Example: On-Track Requirements for a Future Ready Core Student in Garner High School We restricted the sample to include only: 1) first-time ninth graders attending their ninth- grade year at a WCPSS high school, 2) students who never transferred out of the district in high school, and 3) students enrolled in WCPSS sequentially from one year to the next. We exclude non-sequential enrollers and transfer-out students because we are unable to observe their credit accumulation completely.

15. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

16. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

17. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

18. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

19. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

20. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence English Language Learner (n=857)

21. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence English Language Learner (n=857)

22. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence & Missing

23. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

24. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

25. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence

26. IntroductionOverview On-Track Status High School Graduation College Enrollment College Persistence On-Track Status: Key Findings More than a third of students in the 2009-10 cohort were off track at some point in high school, 70% in the ninth grade alone Just under half of the district’s off-track students at the end of 9th grade went on to graduate on time in 2013 More than two-thirds of students missing three off-track indicators dropped out, compared to one-third missing two indicators and 15% missing one indicators Students in the bottom quartile of 8th grade math had higher off-track rates than those in reading Among subgroups, ELL students had the highest off-track rate (47%) and Hispanic students had the lowest recovery rate (40%)