Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) National Climate Program CZECH REPUBLIC presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3 rd NC’s, Bonn,
Parts VII and IX of the 3.NC National Climate Program (establ. 1990) improve scientific cooperation on national level 1 st national project US Country Study Programme several small projects supported by Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Academy of Sci., Charles University, Czech Grant Agency, etc. Decisions 14/CP.4, 5/CP.5 preparatory phase of new national project nd national project (Science&Research Project) focused on IPCC TAR and 3 rd NC
(Science&Research Project) Climate Science, Data Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Regional Scenario Variability, Extrems Observations Hydrology Agriculture Forestry Human Health
Climate models – nodal point positions C - CGCM1, CS - CSIRO, E - ECHAM4, H - HadCM2, NC - NCAR3, SR - CCSR
Model validy HadCM2 Tmean
Regional Climate Change Scenarios IPCC DDC downscaling temperature –increase by spring 1.0 o C, summer 1.6 o C, autumn 1.2 o C, winter 0.9 o C, year 1.2 o C precipitation – 2030 –increase by 3-8% predominantly in winter
Number of days with precipitation above given thresholds Klatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)
Number of days with daily minimum air temperature below given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)
Number of days with daily maximum air temperature above given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)
Hydrology and Water Resources effects on streamflow, groundwater recharge, runoff, water quality temperature increase by 2 o C ~ streamflow reduction by 10-15% due to evaporation flood magnitude and frequency in some regions water quality degradation potable water production and consumption
Hydrology and Water Resources adaptation –water resource management techniques –effective use of water –trade with water –reduction of water shrinkage –water use reduction in industry, energy, agriculture sectors and households –part of State Environmental Policy –sustainable development
Agriculture crop yield respons to climate change shift to more thermophilic crops effect of plant heat stress (extreme temperature events) less moisture in growing season heavy rain periods (june, september) erosion crop modelling assessment
Agriculture modelled climate change effect –CO 2 increase: corn +24%, wheat +33% –T + CO 2 increase: corn +16%, wheat +31% adaptation –agrotechnical management –adjustment to planting dates –fertilization rates –irrigation applications –selections of plants, species
Forestry 22% of territory covered by forests (spruce 54%, pine 18%) climate change effects on forests –dry stress –combined effects (air temperature + soil moisture + local air quality) adaptation –change of tree species, shift to foliate trees, integrated forest protection –changed forest management