1. An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering In cooperation with: Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P. Lettenmaier March 5, 2008 Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008 Climate science in the public interest

2. Outline Background of WA State climate impacts assessment Project framework (sneak preview of results) Project objectives Relationship between impacts assessment another state climate change initiative

3. Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

4. HB 1303 Background Legislation signed by Washington Governor in Spring 2007 Bills goal is to reduce the states dependence on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy via: –Policies and incentive programs to help businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels –Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as climate changes

5. Human Health Agriculture/Economics Salmon Forest Resources CoastsEnergy Infrastructure Water Resources A comprehensive state climate change assessment that includes the impacts of global warming Adaptation / Legal Barriers

6. Project Domain

7. Conceptual Approach to Assessment Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts : The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

8. Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next century –use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios –show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change –characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law School –provide tools for policy makers and user groups –collaborate with Governors Climate Change Challenge team To be completed December 2008 Goals of the Impacts Assessment

9. Data Needs to Support a 21 st Century Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty 2 Emissions Scenarios 20 GCMs 2 Downscaling Approaches XX IPCC Climate Scenarios Hydrology Modeling Approach provides ensemble of variables that can be used to evaluate impacts of climate change Precipitation Air Temperature Streamflow Soil Moisture PET VPD And more!

10. 10.8°F 14.4°F Changes relative to 1970-1999 7.2°F 3.6°F 0°F +2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF) +3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF) +5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF) °C Projected Increases in PNW Temperature

11. Projected Increases in PNW Precipitation

12. Sector Focus Points Hydrology/Water Resources –Impacts to rivers and response of states physical water management infrastructure –Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest (related project) Energy –Impacts to hydropower production (Columbia River) and regional heating & cooling degree days Salmon –Productivity of States streams for salmonids –Regions and conditions under which salmonid habitat is most vulnerable

13. Agriculture/Economics –Impacts on productivity and sustainability of States agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree fruits, grapes, potatoes) Forests –Impacts to growth and productivity of forests and their susceptibility to fire and insect disturbance Coasts –Impacts of sea level rise on structures (inundation and flooding) –Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches Sector Focus Points

14. Infrastructure –Impacts on vulnerable elements of civil infrastructure (stormwater systems) –Consider precipitation variability and flood frequency/magnitude Health –Impacts of ozone and particulate matter on childhood asthma –Heat stress and potential increases in mortality Sector Focus Points

15. Relationship between Impacts Assessment and Washington State Climate Initiative

16. Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO 2 emissions Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation Draft recommendations Complete Final report February 2008

18. Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 Sectors

19. Highlights Washington State supports climate change study and linkages between science and decision-making. Integrated assessment approach which connects climate predictions to hydrology and other impact sectors.

20. Climate science in the public interest The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Marketa McGuire Elsner mmcguire@u.washington.edu More information on the Climate Impacts Group or WA State Climate Impacts Assessment