Overview of the NRC Decadal Review Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at workshop on Polar Snowfall Hydrology Mission Planning Meeting McGill University June 26, 2007

Organization of Study Executive Committee (18 members) Seven Thematically-Organized Panels 1.Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs 2.Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics and Biodiversity 3.Weather (incl. space weather and chemical weather) 4.Climate Variability and Change 5.Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle 6.Human Health and Security 7.Solid-Earth Hazards, Resources and Dynamics

Executive Committee 1.Rick Anthes, UCAR, co-chair, atmospheric science 2.Berrien Moore, U. New Hampshire, co-chair, biogeochemical cycling 3.Jim Anderson, Harvard, atmospheric science, chemistry 4.Bruce Marcus, TRW (ret), remote sensing 5.Bill Gail, Ball Microsoft Virtual Earth, civil space and IT 6.Susan Cutter, U. South Carolina, hazards and risk 7.Tony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, weather forecasting 8.Kathie Kelly, U. Washington, physical oceanography/satellite obs 9.Neal Lane, Rice, policy 10.Warren Washington, NCAR, climate 11.Mary Lou Zoback, RMS, solid earth Panel Chairs 12.Tony Janetos, PNL/U. Md., ecology and land remote sensing 13.Brad Hagar, MIT, solid earth 14.Ruth DeFries, U. Maryland, land cover change and remote sensing 15.Susan Avery, CIRES and CU, meteorology, space weather 16.Eric Barron, U. Texas, climate, paleoclimate 17.Dennis Lettenmaier, U. Washington, hydrology 18.Mark Wilson, U. Michigan, infectious disease and remote sensing

Charge to Panels 1.Identify needs and opportunities for observations from space to advance Earth science and applications for the next decade and beyond; 2.Propose programs or missions to meet these needs and opportunities, in priority order; 3.Describe each proposed mission in terms of Contributions to science and applications How it meets prioritization criteria Benefits to society Technical aspects Schedule Costs 4.Briefly identify needs for obs that are needed to complement space-based obs 5.Identify essential other components (telemetry, data processing, management and stewardship)

Criteria for Prioritization Contributes to the most important scientific questions facing Earth sciences today (scientific merit-discovery, exploration); Contributes to applications and policy making (societal benefits); Contributes to long-term observational record of the Earth; Complements other observational systems, including national and international plans; Affordable (cost considerations, either total costs for mission or costs per year); Degree of readiness (technical, resources, people); Risk mitigation and strategic redundancy (backup of other critical systems); Makes a significant contribution to more than one thematic application or scientific discipline. Above not in priority order

Mission RankingParameters MeasuredRFI Source Mission(s) Mission Concept Name 1Surface Freeze/Thaw Soil Moisture Hydros, WOWS, MOSSSoil Moisture Active Passive 2River and Lake Elevation Ocean Circulation WaTER Hydrosphere Mapper or OOLM Surface Water and Ocean Topography 3Snow Water Equivalent CLPPSnow and Cold Land processes 4Water Vapor Wind Speed and Direction AIRS, GPS RO WOWS Water vapor transport 5Sea-Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation Glacier Velocity ICESAT++ InSAR ICESAT 2 6Ground Water Glacier Mass Balance Ocean Mass Distribution GRACE follow-on, ICESat++ GRACE 2 7Inland and Coastal Water Quality FLORA, SAVIIInland and coastal water quality Water Panel priorities

FINAL REPORT Recommends a Path Forward that Restores US Leadership in Earth Science and Applications and averts the Potential Collapse of the System of Environmental Satellites Presents an Integrated Suite of Missions –Panel recommendations rolled-up –Missions sequenced –Overall cost matched to anticipated resources plus reasonable growth Highest Priorities of Each Panel Preserved Some Guidance on How To Handle Budget or Technology Development Problems

KEY AGENCY RECOMMENDATIONS (for currently planned observing system) NASA-continuity of precipitation and land cover –Launching GPM by 2012 –Obtaining a replacement to Landsat 7 data before The committee also recommends that NASA continue to seek cost-effective, innovative means for obtaining land cover change information.

MAIN RECOMMENDATION (for next decade) NOAA and NASA should undertake a set of 17 recommended missions, phased over the next decade

MAIN RECOMMENDATION (for next decade) NOAA research to operations –Vector ocean winds –GPS radio occultation temperature, water vapor and electron density profiles –Total solar irradiance/and Earth Radiation (NPP) and restored to NPOESS NASA –15 missions in small, medium and large categories

GRACE-II Launch SWOT Launch Societal Challenge: Freshwater Availability Improved precipitation and drought forecasts to improve waterresource management Changes in aquifers and deep ocean currents River discharge estimates SCLP Launch Snow pack accumulation and Snowmelt extent Snow water equivalent, snow depth, and snow wetness Dynamics of water storage in seasonal snow packs GPSRO Launch Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles PATH Launch Temperature and humidity profiles

SMAP Launch ACE Launch GPSRO Launch D-Winds Launch PATH Launch XOVWM Launch Societal Challenge: Improved Weather Prediction Longer-term, more reliable weather forecasts Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles Hurricane wind fields Sea surface temperature Temperature and humidity profiles High resolution ocean vector winds Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles Cloud and aerosol height Linkage between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycle

SCLP Launch HyspIRI Launch D-Winds Launch PATH Launch SWOT Launch XOVWM Launch Societal Challenge: Extreme Event Warnings Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts andintensification predictions, volcanic eruption and landslidewarnings to enable effective evacuation planning. Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles Hurricane wind fields Ocean eddies and currents Sea surface temperature Temperature and humidity profiles High resolution ocean vector winds Processes indicating volcanic eruption Snow pack accumulation and Snowmelt extent Nutrients and water status of vegetation, soil type and health DESDynI Launch Changes in Earth’s surface and movement of magma LIST Launch Detection of active faults Global high resolution topography Sea level measurements extended into coastal zones GPSRO Launch Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles

HyspIRI Launch SMAP Launch GEO-CAPE Launch SWOT Launch Societal Challenge: Ecosystem Services Improved land use, agricultural, and ocean productivityforecasts to improve planting and harvesting schedules andfisheries management XOVWM Launch ACE Launch Organic material in surface ocean layers DESDynI Launch Height and structure of forests Ocean eddies and currents Improved estimates of coastal upwelling and nutrient availability Dynamics of coastal ecosystems, river plumes, tidal fronts Soil freeze/ thaw state Soil moisture effect on vegetation Nutrients and water status of vegetation, soil type and health ASCENDS Launch CO 2 measurements: Day/night, all seasons, all latitudes Inventory of global CO 2 sources and sinks

GEO-CAPE Launch ACE Launch Societal Challenge: Air Quality More reliable air quality forecasts to enable effective urbanpollution management. GACM Launch Vertical profile of ozone and key ozone precursors Global aerosol and air pollution transportation and processes Cloud and aerosol height Aerosol and cloud types and properties Observation of air pollution transport in North, Central, and South America Identification of human vs. natural sources for aerosols and ozone precursors 3D-Winds Launch Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles

GPSRO Launch D-Winds Launch PATH Launch SWOT Launch XOVWM Launch Societal Challenge: Improved Extreme Storm Warnings Longer-term, more reliable storm track forecasts andintensification predictions to enable effective evacuationplanning Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles Hurricane wind fields Ocean eddies and currents Sea surface temperature Temperature and humidity profiles High resolution ocean vector winds Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles

Societal Challenge: Energy Security Improved energy security through more effective oil and gasexploration, safer extraction through improved marine forecasts,optimized placement of wind farms through measurement of globalwinds, better energy conservation through improved heating/coolingforecasts, and support of carbon trading and energy policy. GPSRO Launch Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles HyspIRI Launch Spectra to identify locations of natural resources SWOT Launch Ocean eddies and currents Sea level measurements extended into coastal zones XOVWM Launch High resolution ocean vector winds PATH Launch Sea surface temperature Temperature and humidity profiles 3D-Winds Launch Three dimensional tropospheric wind profiles SMAP Launch Linkage between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycle ASCENDS Launch CO 2 measurements: Day/night, all seasons, all latitudes Inventory of global CO 2 sources and sinks

DESDynI Launch CLARREO Launch ACE Launch ASCENDS Launch ICESat-II Launch Societal Challenge: Climate Prediction Robust estimates of primary climate forcings for improvedclimate forecasts, including local predictions of the effects ofclimate change CO 2 measurements: Day/night, all seasons, all latitudes Connection between climate and CO 2 exchange Aerosol and cloud types and properties Changes in carbon storage in vegetation Estimate of flux of low- salinity ice out of Arctic basin Absolute spectrally resolved IR radiance Incident solar and spectrally resolved reflected irradiance GACM Launch Vertical profile of ozone and key ozone precursors GPSRO Launch Pressure/ temperature/ water vapor profiles

17 Missions (Red = <$900 M; Green = $300-$600 M; Blue = <$300 M) Decadal Survey MissionMission DescriptionOrbitInstruments Rough Cost Estimate Timeframe —Missions listed by cost CLARREO (NOAA portion) Solar and Earth radiation characteristics for understanding climate forcing LEO, SSOBroadband radiometer$65 M GPSROHigh accuracy, all-weather temperature, water vapor, and electron density profiles for weather, climate, and space weather LEOGPS receiver$150 M Timeframe 2013 – 2016 XOVWMSea surface wind vectors for weather and ocean ecosystems MEO, SSOBackscatter radar$350 M

Decadal Survey MissionMission DescriptionOrbitInstruments Rough Cost Estimate Timeframe 2010 – 2013, Missions listed by cost CLARREO (NASA portion) Solar radiation: spectrally resolved forcing and response of the climate system LEO, Precessing Absolute, spectrally- resolved interferometer $200 M SMAPSoil moisture and freeze/thaw for weather and water cycle processes LEO, SSOL-band radar L-band radiometer $300 M ICESat-IIIce sheet height changes for climate change diagnosis LEO, Non- SSO Laser altimeter$300 M DESDynISurface and ice sheet deformation for understanding natural hazards and climate; vegetation structure for ecosystem health LEO, SSOL-band InSAR Laser altimeter $700 M Timeframe: 2013 – 2016, Missions listed by cost HyspIRILand surface composition for agriculture and mineral characterization; vegetation types for ecosystem health LEO, SSOHyperspectral spectrometer $300 M ASCENDSDay/night, all-latitude, all-season CO 2 column integrals for climate emissions LEO, SSOMultifrequency laser$400 M SWOTOcean, lake, and river water levels for ocean and inland water dynamics LEO, SSOKa-band wide swath radar C-band radar $450 M GEO- CAPE Atmospheric gas columns for air quality forecasts; ocean color for coastal ecosystem health and climate emissions GEOHigh and low spatial resolution hyperspectral imagers $550 M ACEAerosol and cloud profiles for climate and water cycle; ocean color for open ocean biogeochemistry LEO, SSOBackscatter lidar Multiangle polarimeter Doppler radar $800 M

[1] Cloud-independent, high temporal resolution, lower accuracy SST to complement, not replace, global operational high-accuracy SST measurement Timeframe: , Missions listed by cost LISTLand surface topography for landslide hazards and water runoff LEO, SSOLaser altimeter$300 M PATHHigh frequency, all-weather temperature and humidity soundings for weather forecasting and SST a GEOMW array spectrometer$450 M GRACE-IIHigh temporal resolution gravity fields for tracking large-scale water movement LEO, SSOMicrowave or laser ranging system $450 M SCLPSnow accumulation for fresh water availability LEO, SSOKu and X-band radars K and Ka-band radiometers $500 M GACMOzone and related gases for intercontinental air quality and stratospheric ozone layer prediction LEO, SSOUV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder $600 M 3D-Winds (Demo) Tropospheric winds for weather forecasting and pollution transport LEO, SSODoppler lidar$650 M

The NASA Response to the Decadal Review

Missions Mission Supporting Year $ Million NASA Earth Science Program: Rapid Return to 2000 Funding Levels Future Program Decadal Survey Prior Commitments

Missions Mission Supporting Fiscal Year FY06 $ Million NASA Earth Science Program: A Substantial Funding Decline FY08 Request Prior Commitments

So what is the solution a) Testimony to key congressional committees (much of this has already happened) b) University (and other non-governmental) interaction with federal affairs offices/representatives -- Most university researchers don’t know these people -- Need to convey information in a concise “USA Today” form c) Proposed statement from AGU (discussions underway) d) White paper or other response (including position statement) from this meeting e) Concerted action among key universities – possible meeting with congressional staff

AGU position statement on NASA earth and space sciences (May 2005) “AGU calls for the U.S. Administration, Congress, and NASA to continue their commitment to innovative Earth and space science programs. This commitment has placed the U.S. in an international leadership position.. it is, however, threatened by financial demands placed on NASA by … the space shuttle, space station, and the Moon-Mars initiative. … Earth and space sciences have become a lower priority at NASA. NASA's proposed 2006 budget reduces science research by $1.2 billion over the next five years … These cuts will decimate effective programs …. These losses will degrade our weather forecasting, search and rescue, and life and property protection capabilities … NASA is being asked to do more than it can with the resources provided. Shifting financial resources from science threatens vital investments and capabilities …. AGU asks the U.S. Administration, Congress, and NASA to renew their commitment to Earth and space science research.”