A Keystone Battle in Pennsylvania: Demographics and Tactics for Victory Mark Harris, Campaign Manager Toomey for Senate

The Final Score Toomey : 51.1% - Sestak 48.9% Carried 60 of 67 counties including Democratic heavy southwestern PA

The Players Pat Toomey – Former Congressman from Lehigh Valley (99-05) – Small business owner – President of the Club for Growth – Worked on Wall St – Spent a year doing consulting in China in 1990

The Players Joe Sestak – Retired Admiral (30+ years of – Incumbent Congressman from Philadelphia suburbs – Very liberal voting record – Strong supporter of Obama administration

Economic Realignment Pre – 2004Post – 2004 Upper Class Upper Middle Class Middle Class Lower Middle Class Lower Class

Target Demographics Upper middle class suburban women – Philadelphia suburbs – Fiscally conservative – Socially liberal Lower middle class men – Southwest PA – Fiscally conservative – Socially conservative

Obama Changes the Game Summer of 2009 – Healthcare Townhall phenomenon excites and unites GOP base – Upper class and upper middle class flee Democratic coalition over national debt and perceived threat to existing healthcare arrangement – Lower middle class begin to waver even though healthcare aimed at them

Obamacare & Obama Generic Ballot Throughout the campaign our ballot lead would correspond within 2-4pts to the net disapproval of Obamacare, 3-5pts to the net Republican advantage

Persuasion Began two week aggressive media campaign immediately post-primary to stage race on ideological grounds – Statewide network tv – Heavy in senior and target demo shows All media efforts post-primary paint Joe Sestak as outside of the mainstream and out of touch with economic concerns of middle class

Identification Participated in a microtargetting program in June phone centers plus phone from home program placed over 4 million voter id calls to identify both Obama support and support for top of ticket

Turnout Traditional GOTV plan using hard ID data plus microtargetting data to build universe of 3.2 million voters Targeted GOTV effort to Presidential voting only Republicans – Door to door canvas for three weeks leading up in high density area – Phones to 1 of 4 voters: 4 times in run up to election

Online $750,000 in online spend post Labor day Targeted to key demographics thru Facebook, YouTube, Google, and targeted websites

The Lessons TV is declining, but not dead yet Message discipline in a divided media environment is key Presidential election lessons do not apply (mostly) HOW DOES THIS GET ME VOTES