Current trends in Somali piracy Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts, Senior Analyst

Horn of Africa hijackings, January present Naval forces deployment becomes effective Pirate mother ship campaign Oct 2010 – Feb 2011

Future outlook and conclusions How pirates will adapt to falling success rates (and armed guards) is unclear but they will change tactics No big changes needed in pirate equipment or capabilities No shore side factors emerging to suggest decreasing pirate attacks Good BMP implementation (particularly operational intelligence) remains an effective way to reduce attacks from occurring Armed guards, combined with BMP, can reduce the likelihood of a hijack attempt succeeding The emerging issue is that poorly deployed armed guards will be used as a substitute for good BMP, which increases risks and possible liability for ship owners “If armed Private Maritime Security Contractors are to be used they must be as an additional layer of protection and not as an alternative to BMP.” – BMP version 4