Early Detection & Monitoring North America Drought from Space

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Presentation transcript:

Early Detection & Monitoring North America Drought from Space Felix Kogan National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite Data & Information Services Mexico 2006

Topics Background AVHRR Data Theory Method Product Application Validation New, 4 km 26-year data set

Drought as Natural Disaster Drought (D) is a part of earth’s climate D. occurs every year D. does not recognize borders, political & economic differences D. affects the largest number of people D. unique features Start unnoticeably Build-up slowly Develop cumulatively Impact cumulative & not immediately observable When damage is evident it’s too late to mitigate the consequences

NOAA Operational Environmental Satellites

DATA from NOAA operational polar orbiting satellites Sensor: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Satellites: NOAA-7, 9, 11, 14, 16, 18 (afternoon.), 17 Data Resolution: Spatial - 4 km GAC, sampled to 16 km; Temporal - 7-day composit Period: 1981-2006 Coverage: World (75 N to 55 S) Channels: VIS (ch1), NIR (ch2), Thermal (ch4, ch5)

AVHRR observations

Typical Vegetation Reflectance NIR reflectance depends on WATER CONTENT CELL STRUCTURE VIS reflectance depends on CHLOROPHYLL CAROTENOID

Reflectance & chlorophyll

AVHRR Reflectance

NDVI & Smoothed NDVI Eliminate high frequency noise Emphasize seasonal cycle Separate medium & low frequency variations

NDVI & Rainfall (% mean), SUDAN 115% 73% 95% 51%

NDVI annual time series, Illinois, USA

Weather & Ecosystem Components in NDVI & BT, Central USA

PRODUCTS 0 – indicates extreme stress Vegetation condition index (VCI), values 0 - 100 VCI=(NDVI-NDVImin)/(NDVImax-NDVImin) NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel; Temperature condition index (TCI), values 0 - 100 TCI=(BTmax-BTmin)/(BTmax-BTmin) NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel Vegetation Health Index (VHI), values 0 – 100 VHI=a*VCI+(1-a)*TCI 0 – indicates extreme stress 100 – indicates favorable conditions Our newer products use more sophisticated climatology along with NDVI values and Brightness Temperatures to determine vegetation characteristics. The first experimental product is the Vegetation Condition Index based on the NDVI, the NDVI climatology and the most recent values of the NDVI. Lower values of this index indicate an unfavorable vegetation condition due to less moisture.

Vegetation Health Indices Algorithm Ch1&Ch2 Ch4 NDVI Brightness Temp. Climatology VCI TCI Vegetation Condition Index Temperature Condition Index VHI Vegetation Health Index

What Vegetation Health Indices Assess? Moisture Condition (VCI) Thermal Condition (TCI) Vegetation Health (VHI) Fire Risk (FRI) Drought Start (DS) Drought Area (DA) Drought Dynamics (DD)

Vegetation Products ECOSYSTEMS (distribution & change) WEATHER (droughts) FORESTRY (fire risk) NWS MODELS (vegetation fraction) AGRICULTURE (production) CLIMATE (ENSO) HUMAN HEALTH (epidemics) WATER (irrigation)

Drought 1988 Severe Moisture and Thermal Vegetation Stress

Percent of USA with rainfall < 50% and VCI < 10

Drought 1988, Satellite & In Situ Data

Major US Droughts 1985-2000 Early season Late season drought Late season drought Early season Drought, Winter Wheat affected Early season droughts in winter wheat is effected Mid-season drought, corn affected

Major US Droughts, 2001-2006

Vegetation Health Indices 2006 North America

Fire Risk Western USA Index is based on: DROUGHT INTENSITY (VHI<30) and DURATION (1-5 weeks) Fire Fire Fire Danger is estimated from VHI based on intensity and duration of vegetation stress

Vegetation Health Index 2000-2001

Percent of a state with extreme & exceptional drought

Precipitation and VHI, Chicago 2005-2006

Precipitation & VHI, Tucson, AZ, 2000-2006

VHI vs Drought Monitor

Greenness (USGS) vs VHI (NESDIS) vs DM

CRD Winter Wheat Production, Kansas

Winter Wheat Yield, Kansas, 1981-2003

Correlation Dynamics: WW dY vs VHI’s, KANSAS

Correlation of dY vs VCI, Winter Wheat KANSAS CRD

Model Verification, Kasas, Winter Wheat

CRD CORN Production, Kansas

DYNAMICS of dY vs VCI & TCI, Kansas, CORN, 1985-2006

Corn Yield, Haskell Co, Kansas

Correlation Corn dY vs VHIs Haskell Co, Kansas

Independent model verification, Kansas, CORN, 1985-2005

Correlation of dY vs VCI, Kasas

GVI-x: New 26-year, 4-km, 7-day Composit AVHRR Data Set for Land Cover & Climate Study

Conditions Data set must be: - Longest - Highest resolution: * spatial * temporal - Contain maximum original parameters - Contain products - Compatible with geography - Validated against in situ data - High accuracy - Easy understandable nomenclature

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Vegetation Health Index USA, 1988, week27 GVI-x vs GVI2

Global Long-Term Land Data Sets

1988 US Drought Satellite and Ground Data

Global Area NDVI NOAA-17 vs NOAA-16

Web http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci Every Monday new information on Vegetation Conditions & Health is posted E-Mail: Felix.Kogan@noaa.gov

VIIRS vs AVHRR AVHRR VIS NIR

AVHRR vs MODIS

Thank You

Spectral Response Function & Vegetation Reflectance

SST anomaly & Vegetation Health El Nino & La Nina December

Vegetation Health, Mid-July 2006 Vegetation Health, Surface Conditions Vegetation Health, surface condition

Publications 2000-2004

Processing Pre-Launch Calibration VIS, NIR Post-Launch Calibration VIS, NIR Correct response function difference VIS, NIR Calculate NDVI and BT (from IR4) Apply non-linear correction to BT Remove high frequency noise NDVI and BT Derive 1981-2005 NDVI & BT climatology Calculate Vegetation health indices (VHIs)