1. 1 2005 AVHRR Data for Monitoring Drought, Environment and Socioeconomic Activities Felix Kogan NOAA/NESDIS Office of Satellite Research and Applications

2. 2 World Population & Grain Production

3. 3 World Grain

4. 4 Global Water Use

5. 5 Irrigated Agricultural Land 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-00 2900 4200 3400 3200

6. 6 Vegetation Products WEATHER (droughts) FORESTRY (fire risk) AGRICULTURE (production) CLIMATE (ENSO) HUMAN HEALTH (epidemics) WATER (irrigation) NWS MODELS (vegetation fraction) ECOSYSTEMS (distribution & change)

7. 7 DATA Sensor: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Satellites:NOAA-7, 9, 11, 14, 16 ( afternoon ), 17 (morning) Data Resolution: Spatial - 4 km GAC, sampled to 16 km; Temporal - 7-day composit Period: 1981-2005 Coverage: World (75 N to 55 S) Channels:VIS (ch1), NIR (ch2), Thermal (ch4, ch5)

8. 8 AVHRR Reflectance

9. 9 NDVI shows vegetation distribution Brightness Temperature shows how hot is the surface

10. 10 World Population Affected by Natural Disasters 1967-1991 % Disaster TypeAffectedKilled Weather Drought 51 38 Flood 38 9 Hurricane etc. 8 27 Geological Earthquake 2 18 Volcano <1 <1

11. 11 Drought 1988 Severe Moisture and Thermal Vegetation Stress

12. 12 Percent of USA with rainfall < 50% and VCI < 10

13. 13 Major US Droughts 1985-2000 Early season droughts in winter wheat is effected Early season Drought, Winter Wheat affected Late season drought Mid-season drought, corn affected Late season drought

14. 14 Wheat Density vs VCI

15. 15 Vegetation Condition Index, USSR southeast

16. 16 Drought Dynamics from Vegetation Health Index Drought No Drought

17. 17 Area of Severe Drought Severe drought continued four years in a row covering more then 40% of a country

18. 18 VEGETATION HEALTH 2005

19. 19 Vegetation Health, JUNE 6

20. 20 Vegetation Health 2005-04

21. 21 6-year Drought Horn of Africa

22. 22

23. 23 Fire Risk Assessment

24. 24 Corn Yield vs VCI, USA

25. 25 Wheat in Morocco from AVHRR-based VH & in situ data VH In Situ CHINA RUSSIA INDIA MONGOLIA KAZAKHSTAN ARGENTINA BRAZIL USA POLAND HUNGARY ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA ETHIOPIA TURKMENISTAN Kogan 1990, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

26. 26 AGRICULTURE Vegetation Health & Production POLAND BRAZIL ARGENTINA KAZAHSTAN REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA ZIMBABWE

27. 27 VHI vs Biomass Mongolia, 1985-1997

28. 28 Web http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov /smcd/emb/vci

29. 29 Archive of Images Year W e k Vegetation Health, AUSTRALIA

30. 30 Conclusions Achievements Vegetation Health Index (Combine NDVI and BT, Use climatology, Strong validation, Complete removal of high frequency noise) Universal Drought Index New Products (Fire risk, Diseases, Climate & trend, Irrigation, Soil surface saturation, Start/end of the growing season) WE need: *Continuity of sensors (AVHRR-MODIS-VIIRS) *Stability of time series (calibration, unusual events) *Climate trends *New products with predictive ability