Model of Measuring State’s Intention of Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy - as a tool of supporting IAEA integrated safeguards - 1. Introduction When we consider both global warming and increasing energy demand for the global economic growth, nuclear energy is clearly one of the most reliable resources. The number of states installing nuclear power plants will increase in the near future. At the same time, the amount of open-source data is so augmented explosively that it is getting difficult for us to handle them effectively. Given these situations, information analysis for the IAEA safeguards needs to be implemented in restricted budget more efficiently than ever. The purpose of this study is to develop a new model (tentatively call “state activities model” here) that enables us to examine state’s activities in promoting peaceful use of nuclear energy by using open-source data. The model is useful in the following points at least.  Enhance the effectiveness of IAEA’s State Evaluation by supporting the technical area covered by “physical model”  Provide a common model equally applicable to all the state  Show another possibility of cost-effective open-source analysis Naoto OTSUKA, Nuclear Nonproliferation Science and Technology Center (NPSTC), Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo 2. What will be studied in the area of integrated safeguards ? 4. Model (State Activities Model) (under consideration) Effective Safeguards System by IAEA Verification of no diversion from declared nuclear activities and absence of undeclared nuclear activities information eventually declared by state All information of inspection State evaluation by IAEA Physical Model State Activities Model Information from open sources Information of routine inspection Information initially declared by state Complementary Access Analysis of anomaly Extraction of meaningful information Additional Information Satellite Imagery Environmental Sampling State Declare Initially Declared Information Eventually Declared Information Circumjacent Activities Open-source data Information Analysis 3. Methodology 1.Extract basic correlations among state’s intentions from the areas relevant to the activities declared by a state including a variety of their circumjacent activities, and summarize them into a state activities model consisting of many causal loops, which are expected common to all the state, as shown in the figure below. 2. Put a fuzzy value into each box of the model, the value of which shows a degree of attainment of the intention, by examining open-source data, and optimize the value considering the correlations with the connected boxes by using Fuzzy Logical Operations of “AND”/ “OR”. 3.Find out the important paths for the state to attain its intentions, and make semi-quantitative evaluation of the plausibility that the state has no intention to initiate any acquisition path to nuclear explosive devices. The University of Tokyo Global COE Program Nuclear Education and Research Initiative