Accelerating the transition to a low carbon emission society: reflections on the Canadian context James Meadowcroft Canada Research Chair in Governance for Sustainable Development Carleton University Climate Change and Renewable Energy Policy in the European Union and Canada Ottawa, October 1-2, 2015

Accelerating the transition to a low carbon emission societyOutline: Appreciating the Canadian context Appreciating the Canadian context The longer term vision The longer term vision Moving forward today Moving forward today

The context for the low carbon transition and new renewable deployment in Canada GHG intensive economic development trajectory GHG intensive economic development trajectory  major fossil fuel producer and exporter,  high GHG intensity of GDP and per capita emissions Regionally distinct energy political economies: Regionally distinct energy political economies:  resources, development model  jurisdiction Weak climate change policies Weak climate change policies  ‘sad history’  Recent encouraging trends: Ontario coal phase out; BC carbon tax; Ontario cap and trade; reform to Alberta Specified Gas Emitters system

Canada’s GHG Emissions and emissions reduction targets

The context for the low carbon transition and new renewables in Canada Economic integration with the United States. Economic integration with the United States. An 80% decarbonized electricity system, with large regional variations. An 80% decarbonized electricity system, with large regional variations. Delayed interest in new renewables, with some recent experience in Ontario and elsewhere. Delayed interest in new renewables, with some recent experience in Ontario and elsewhere. Massive renewable resource potential Massive renewable resource potential Internationally developments: rapidly falling prices for key new renewable technologies and increasing international deployment. Internationally developments: rapidly falling prices for key new renewable technologies and increasing international deployment.

The longer term vision Long term decarbonization objectives: 80%+ reduction by 2050, with a carbon emission free energy system Long term decarbonization objectives: 80%+ reduction by 2050, with a carbon emission free energy system Electrification central to all pathways to deep decarbonization. Implies perhaps doubling of electricity supply by Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project Electrification central to all pathways to deep decarbonization. Implies perhaps doubling of electricity supply by Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project So new renewables will be critical to meet long term decarbonization objectives. But not just new renewables. So new renewables will be critical to meet long term decarbonization objectives. But not just new renewables. Interim goal: drive unmitigated fossil energy out of power generation (first coal, then gas) by (Could be some place for CCS) Interim goal: drive unmitigated fossil energy out of power generation (first coal, then gas) by (Could be some place for CCS) Decarbonize transport and the built environment Decarbonize transport and the built environment

Moving forward today Strengthen climate policy framework Strengthen climate policy framework Frame as a transition or transformation Frame as a transition or transformation Promote regional decarbonization pathways Promote regional decarbonization pathways Develop green economic policy Develop green economic policy