US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Hostile Neutral / UndecidedFriendly Level of Influence More Less Garnet PHARM IDPs VEOS GOA PIA GOAL Criminal Elements Muskagee Population Shahida Population GOP NGOs GARNET PHARM IDPs VEOs PIA Criminal Elements Muskagee Population Shahida Population IGO / NGOs

US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces 2 CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – NEF Center of Gravity: NEF Camps UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA 17 Sep 2014 (Draft) Critical Capabilities: NEF TOC (C2 & Comms) Maritime Security Landward Security Critical Requirements: HN Political Support Common Intel Picture / Operational Picture Robust Coalition Communications Plan Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with Higher HQ and HN government ISR to Understand FP Concerns and/or Emerging Crisis Critical Vulnerabilities: INT’L Legitimacy of Mission HN Public Support/Perception HN Security Freedom/Use of GLOC/SLOC HN/US/Coalition Logistic Support Breach of ROEs / Local national casualties, caused by CF activities Lack a deep understanding of the situation (risk making the situation worse).

US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – HN 3 UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA 17 Sep 2014 (Draft) Center of Gravity: AMBERLAND Govt. Critical Vulnerabilities: PHARM Freedom of Movement/Maneuver Lovisa Clan Support of PHARM GARNETIAN Support of PHARM GLOC/SLOC Vulnerable to VEO Disruption Commerce Vulnerable to VEO Disruption Immature AMBERLAND Security Force Insecure Borders (Ungoverned Space) Clan Alliances Public Perception Vulnerable to Deceptive Messaging (Internal/External) Critical Capabilities: Rule of Law INT’L Legitimacy Freedom of Commerce Amberlandian Public Support Critical Requirements: UN Sanctions Deterring Increased Aggression Presence of Unified INT’L Response INT’L Political / Military Support IGO/NGO Support Clan Support Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with Coalition/IGO/NGOs Ability to Disrupt VEO Activity Ability to Control Public Perception Ability to Identify/Address Clan Concerns Ability to Identify/Address Public Concerns

US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Center of Gravity: Lovisa Clan Facilitation UNCLASSIFIED 4 03 Sep 2013 (V1) Critical Capabilities: Recruit Fighters Provide Safe Haven Gain External Support Discredit Government of AMBERLAND (GOAL) Critical Requirements: Freedom of Maneuver in AMBERLAND Provide alternate governance model Align goals/objectives with the Lovisa Clan Access to finance, arms and training provided by GARNET Conduct attacks against GOAL locations & forces Info Ops campaign to exploit actions and GOAL bias Critical Vulnerabilities: Exposure of lack of civil freedoms & atrocities under PHARM rule Interdiction of weapons and finance coming from GARNET Inability to enforce directives of shadow government Hostility of remaining 3 clans within AMBERLAND Delivery of effective GOAL governance & enfranchisement of the Lovisa Clan Western financial support/NGO activity Perceptions of PHARM as GARNET puppet CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – PHARM UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA 17 Sep 2014 (Draft)

US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Hostile Neutral / UndecidedFriendly Level of Influence More Less Garnet PHARM IDPs VEOS GOA PIA GOAL Criminal Elements Muskagee Population Shahida Population GOP NGOs GARNET PHARM IDPs VEOs PIA Criminal Elements Muskagee Population Shahida Population IGO / NGOs

US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Risk to Force (Threa t Envir onme nt) Hostile Friendly DP LEGEND LEGEND: = NEF Decision Point PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 0 NEF – PHASE of OPERATION COAs COAs: -Do Nothing (Accept Risk to F/M) - Request Augment NEF (Mitigate Risk to F/M) - Request Change MSN (Mitigate Risk to F) -i.e. Consolidate SECFOR to protect key ports/airfields for follow-on forces - Request Subordinate NEF -to Adjacent CTF - Request Redeploy NEF (Unacceptable Risk)