1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 11, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, the rainfall deficit is seen over southern India, southern and southeastern China, and over some parts of Indonesia. During the months of boreal fall (SON), the summer monsoon that was active over the Indian subcontinent will traverse thru southeast Asia to become and settle as the boreal winter monsoon, sometimes called the North East monsoon, over Indonesia/New Zealand/Australia region during DJF.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is somewhat similar to the 90-day pattern, even though the recent 30 day positive anomalies over India are much stronger. Much of central and southern India received below normal rainfall, as well as northeast India near the state of Assam.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During the last seven days, peninsular and northeast India continued to be dry, but Borneo island of Indonesia and Philippines received heavy rainfall.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation The low level anomalous cyclonic center near Hainan island in the South China Sea brought plenty of rainfall to the surrounding region and parts of interior southern China.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, the rainfall deficit is seen over southern India, southern and southeastern China, and over some parts of Indonesia. During the months of boreal fall (SON), the summer monsoon that was active over the Indian subcontinent will traverse thru southeast Asia to become and settle as the boreal winter monsoon, sometimes called the North East monsoon, over Indonesia/New Zealand/Australia region during DJF. The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is somewhat similar to the 90-day pattern, even though the recent 30 day positive anomalies over India are much stronger. Much of central and southern India received below normal rainfall, as well as northeast India near the state of Assam. During the last seven days, peninsular and northeast India continued to be dry, but Borneo island of Indonesia and Philippines received heavy rainfall. The low level anomalous cyclonic center near Hainan island in the South China Sea brought plenty of rainfall to the surrounding region and parts of interior southern China. The NCEP GFS model continues to forecast below normal rainfall over the entire southeast Asia region for the next ten days.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology