Scottish Executive’s Futures Work Strategy Unit November 2006

The Futures Project Where are we now?  Strategic Audit Where could we be?  Trends Analysis  Futures Workshops What does this mean?  Applying the thinking.

Strategic Audit: Mean scores for 15 year olds (PISA 2003) Source: OECD and Scottish Executive Reading Maths Science

Strategic Audit: Participation in Higher Education above OECD and UK averages Tertiary Type A (First Degree) entry rate Source: OECD and Scottish Executive Note: The Entry Rate refers to the proportion of people who will enter tertiary type A (first degree level) programmes in their lifetime if current entry rates continue.

Strategic Audit: A high share of young people not in education, employment or training Source: OECD and Scottish Executive Note: Data for Italy, United States and Netherlands are for 2002 % of 15 – 19 year olds not in employment, education or training (NEET) 2003

Strategic Audit: Our GDP per head is in the mid-range GDP per head, OECD countries 2003 ($US current purchasing power) Source: OECD/Scottish Executive

Strategic Audit: Employment levels are high in the European context Source: Eurostat and Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey Note: Germany figure includes East Germany; Data refer to year olds Annual average employment rate (%) Our employment rate is currently above the UK

Strategic Audit: Our historical trend of large scale emigration seems to have ended Source: GROS Scottish net migration (000’s) Net-migration in the last 2 years highest since records began

Strategic Audit: life expectancy is lower than many comparable countries Source: Eurostat and GAD Life expectancy at birth – females Selected countries Life expectancy at birth – males Selected countries

Strategic Audit: Significant factor is our poor record in the major causes of death – although some improvement within Scotland Source: OECD Health Data 2005 Note: Data not available for Scotland for all years Coronary heart disease deaths per 100,000 population - males Source: ISD Scotland/Scottish Executive Note: Data standardised to European Population Scottish coronary heart disease deaths per 100,000 population (under 75) Over 40% reduction between 1995 to 2004

Rise in liver cirrhosis levels in Scotland – linked to rising alcohol consumption? Standardised death rates due to chronic liver disease and cirrhosis all ages per persons Source: WHO and Scottish Executive Number of alcohol related deaths in Scotland rose by 240% between 1980 and 2003

Strategic Audit: long-term recorded crime is falling while clear-ups are rising Source: Scottish Executive Note: Change in trend in 2004 can be attributed to the introduction of the Scottish Crime Recording Standards from April of that year Number of recorded crimes & clear up rates (%) in Scotland

Summary of where we are: Challenges  Long-term economic growth rate  Inequality, poverty and economic inactivity  Access to opportunities for young people currently not in education, employment or training  Health record – including attitudes to diet, smoking and alcohol  Changing demographic make-up  Levels of violent crime.

Summary of where we are: Strengths   Strong – and well qualified – labour market   Schools have generally strong levels of educational attainment   Universities performing strongly in terms of research and citations   Progress in reducing poverty – particularly for children and pensioners   Improvements made against some key health indicators.

Issues around Trends and Horizon Scanning  Not about predicting the future  But a range of choices and options  Uses a number of techniques Strengthen awareness about what might happen in the future and what we could do about it

Where might we be? Trends Analysis  Globalisation  Life Course  Individualism  Media & Technology  Politics & Govt  Shape of Society  Employment  Sustainability Trends Analysis – Where might we be?

Future Issues – Life Course  More solo-living  Living longer – but not that healthily  A growing problem with alcohol  Mental illness the biggest problem of the 21st Century? Number of alcohol related deaths in Scotland

There will be pressure on resources (human, energy, financial) Where might we be? Some Relative Certainties There is no alternative to Globalisation An ageing population will occur Expectations of govt by its citizens will rise Technology will continue to impact on our lives Scotland a strong niche player? Scotland at the mercy of globalisation? Older people valued and contributing? Older people dependent & disadvantaged? Managed approach? At mercy of wider factors? New understanding between Govt & citizen? Increasing dissatisfaction? Ahead of the curve? We don’t take full advantage?

Next Steps 1.First Minister’s Lecture 2.Applying the thinking  The demographic opportunity  The global opportunity  Education and Learning 3.Linkage to the Strategic Platform