Climate change and Its Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate change and Its Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington Program on Climate Change

Part I Global Climate Change

Earth’s Energy Balance and Greenhouse Gases Source: NASA, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Greenhouse gases: H 2 O, O 3, CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, halocarbons

Sources of US anthropogenic GHGs Source: U.S. EPA 2005 by gasby sector

How cars generate CO 2 Source: Murray ca. 2005

CO 2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present Source: various, assembled by Davies 2000 CO 2 concentration, ppm Temperature difference from today CO 2 concentration Temperature Difference °C Years BP

CO to present

Future climate change Source: IPCC 2001 global economic development regional economic stratification global environmental consciousness regional environmental consciousness and economies 1992 projection

Risks of future climate change Source: IPCC 2001 Possible threats: Ecosystem change Flooding of coastal communities Spread of diseases Increase of extreme weather events

Part II Pacific Northwest Impacts

Average Northwest warming, Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005 Year Degrees F

Retreat of the South Cascades glacier Source: USGS ca. 2005

Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow Source: Mote ca increased winter flows an earlier peak decreased spring/ summer flows

Trends in actual streamflows, March June Source: Stewart, Cayan & Dettinger 2004

Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry Source: Mote ca days of operation per year current climate 2040’s (two different models) 2020’s (two different models) 24 cm snow threshold 50 cm 80 cm

Effects on salmonid life-cycle Source: Mote ca winter flooding low summer streamflow; higher temp. changing estuary conditions (prey, predators, competitors) possible effects still unknown

Vegetation carbon in Source: Nielson ca. 2005

Other effects Likely: less frequent extreme cold events coastal erosion and landslides Possible: increased precipitation intensity Changes in El Niño frequency, intensity or local effects Changes in fogginess, wind storms Source: Mote ca. 2005

Part III Taking Action

Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004 U.S. GHGsWashington GHGs

Two venues for action Source: Hammerschlag ca Vote Financially support concerned organizations - Climate Solutions - Northwest Energy Coalition Volunteer for concerned organizations - Door-to-door education - Legislative lobbying POLICY REFORM Drive less - Carpool or use transit - Walk or bicycle - Combine errands - Telecommute Drive a fuel-efficient car Reduce home energy use - CFLs - Energy Star appliances - Heat room-by-room - Minimize summer A/C Purchase GHG offsets PERSONAL GHG CUTS

The End. University of Washington Program on Climate Change

annexes 1.Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG 2.CH to Present

Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG Source: Lazarus, Hippel & Bernow 2002

CH to present Source: Mote ca. 2005