1. Global warming and Sea Level Rise: Best estimates by 2100 John King
Professor of Oceanography

2. Global Warming: What is it? • The increase in the measured temperature
of the earth’s oceans and near-surface air.

3. Measured temperature increases since 1860
Global annually averaged surface temperatures, based on NASA GISS surface temperature analysis

4. Global Warming: What’s causing it?
• Human activities add CO2 and other gases
to the atmosphere.
• The increase of these gases causes
“The Greenhouse Effect.”

5. The Greenhouse Effect Some of the energy is reflected back into space.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap some of the heat. More gases = more heat.
Sun’s energy passes through the atmosphere, warming the earth.

6. Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere

7. Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

8. Global Warming: Why does it matter?
Global warming causes climate changes that will affect:
natural ecosystems
availability of food and water
global economies
frequency of extreme weather events
human health and lifestyle

9. Changes in Precipitation
Increased CO2 emissions = climate change
Rising Temperatures
Changes in Precipitation
Rising Sea Level
Increasing CO2

10. Global effects of climate change and sea level rise

11. Effects of Global Warming:
Rising temperatures

12. Rhode Island climate “migration”
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

13. Rising Temperatures
Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

14. Global and Continental Temperature Change
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

15. Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast

16. Effects of Global Warming:
Rising sea level

18. Four contributions to sea level rise
Thermal expansion of seawater
Melting of glaciers and ice caps
Ice sheet surface mass balance
snowfall - melting
Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance
increased flow rate

19. Projected globally averaged surface warming &
sea level rise at the end of the 21st century
Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

20. Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected
Interval Model Prediction Observed
mm/year
mm/year

21. Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected

22. 2007 - IPCC sea level rise estimate
Thermal expansion of seawater cm
Glaciers and ice caps cm
Mass balance cm
Increased flow cm
Total: 40 cm
Range of Estimates: cm

23. > 3 13 - 20 1.6 - 4.6 - - - 2.6 - 6.6 Sea Level Rise: New Estimates
Reference
By 2100
(feet)
Total Rise
Overpeck,
et al., 2006
> 3
Rahmsorf,
2007
- - -
Pfeffer,
et al., 2008

24. Additions to global rise predictions
Increased sea level rise estimates for New England
Reference
Additions to global rise predictions
Yin,
et al., 2009
+ 8 inches
Hu,
inches
Total global +
regional
feet

25. Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores
Present day
From Brook, E. J., Science , 25 vol no. 5752, pp

26. What does 3 feet of sea level rise look like?

27. Effects of Global Warming:
Rising sea level in Rhode Island

28. Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading

29. Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading

30. Quonochontaug Pond 5’ sea level rise detail:
Model by Nathan Vinhateiro, GSO-URI
Flooded areas shown with light blue shading

31. Planning Needs for Rhode Island
Seamless digital terrain model
LIDAR survey of coastline
High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters
Inundation model
Storm surge with wave regime superimposed
Better understanding of coastal erosion style and rate
Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal erosion monitoring program

32. Possible explanation for why human-induced
global warming is still “controversial”