Pinchas Landau October 2015

Summary  Political extremism in Europe is widely perceived to be on the rise  However, no tool is available to provide an objective, quantitative measure of extremism  The Political Extremism Index (PEI) is such a measure, for both individual countries and multilateral groupings (EU, eurozone, etc.)  PEI findings show that the level of extremism doubled in the period  PEI confirms that extremism is strongly correlated with unemployment, reacting with a lag

Political Extremism Index

 Until now:  Sporadic approach  Based on gut feelings  Driven by incidental news items  We need a tool to measure extremism:  Quantitative (how much) and qualitative (how bad)  Continent-wide and country-specific  Enables data-based, up-to-date reporting and analysis  Predictive capability?

 Monitors the European political landscape via parliamentary election results  Constructed for various groupings:  Pre (eastward expansion) EU membership (15 countries)  Current eurozone membership (19 countries)  Current EU membership (28 countries)  EU + Switzerland and Norway (ex-EU West European countries)  Regional groups  Weighted for relative size within grouping  Combines vote-share for extreme left and right

Political Extremism Index

 European countries hold free and fair elections  Politics reliably expresses social trends  Political parties across countries can be grouped into general categories  Relative population is the best/ simplest method to weight each country when calculating the index for a group of countries  Extreme parties of both right and left serve as expressions of radical protest against mainstream  ‘Green’ parties are diverse across countries, hence best placed in a separate category

Example – Quarterly Report Q Italy is highlighted because elections were held this quarter. The sum of vote percentage for both extreme right and extreme left parties = Extremism Index. The Extremism Index value is calculated for 5 groupings: 1.EU27+: Full EU + Norway and Switzerland 2.EU27: Full EU. 3.EZ: Eurozone. 4.EZ exG: Eurozone excluding Germany 5.EU15: Pre-eastward expansion EU. For a country in which an election was held during the quarter, we show a before/after summary, as well as a brief note on the result.

Track which parties belong in each ideological category…

Country Population * % in EU27+** Elctn % of Parliament Votes % Votes for Extreme Parties Extreme Right Moderate Right Center Moderate Left Extreme Left GreenOthers Hungary 9,878, % Belgium 11,244, % Slovenia 2,060, % Sweden 9,644, % Bulgaria 7,243, % Latvia 2,004, %

Extremism Index , Quarterly Data

 Economic crisis leads to rising unemployment (particularly among youths)  Unemployment creates frustration and thirst for change  In a democratic regime, change is achieved through the ballot-box  Therefore, unemployment drives an increase in political extremism by way of a protest vote  Anti-Semitism is (also) an expression of political extremism; its intensity varies in line with the general level of political extremism

 At the single-country level: ▪ Swings in levels of extremism seem related to the economic cycle and prove to be closely related to changes in the rate of unemployment (with lags) ▪ Most countries have idiosyncratic features that explain the relative level of extremism and specific developments ▪ Some countries are exceptions (for whatever reason)… ▪ …such as, seemingly, the UK  At the EU/ eurozone level: ▪ The relationship with unemployment is clear-cut, as exceptions are ‘lost in the crowd’

UK - Distribution of Votes (Parliamentary Elections) % Votes for Extreme Parties Extreme Right Moderate Right Center Moderate Left Extreme LeftGreenOthers Parties in this category UKIP+BNP CON+ DUP+UUP LD+APNILAB+SDLP SNP+SF +RES GPPC+others

Thank you for your attention!