1. The end of Croatian exceptionalism: anti-establishment backlash and the Human Shield party in Croatia Dr. Višeslav Raos, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb,
PANEL: The CEE Political Parties in a Changing Political Environment
22nd Annual Conference of the Central European Political Science Association: Integration vs Disintegration? CEECs
Towards European Union and its Challenges
14 – 15 September 2017, University of Wrocław

2. Presentation outline Introduction
Patterns of Party Competition in Croatia
Party System Change in Croatia,
Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party
Croatia in Comparison to other CEE Party Systems
Conclusion

3. introduction
Croatia was until recently one of the few CEE countries with almost no Eurosceptic and/or anti-systemic parties in parliament
Rather stable party system started to crumble from 2015
The rise of populism and Euroscepticism
Is Croatia becoming more similar to other CEE states that joined the EU earlier?

4. Patterns of party competition in croatia
Moderate pluralism since 2000
EU membership as a broad consensus
Alternation of center-left and center-right pro-EU coalition governments
Low volatility, low turnout, strong party membership
Stable governments
Cultural cleavages more important than economic cleavages

5. Party System Change in Croatia, 2015-2017
Inconclusive electoral result in 2015 – hung parliament between the center-left (led by SDP) and center-right (led by HDZ) blocks
The emergence of a protest, anti-corruption, pro-reform party Bridge of Independent Lists (Most)
Unstable government of non-partisan prime minister Tihomir Orešković
Snap election in 2016
Unstable second coalition of HDZ and Most
New government coalition of HDZ and HNS
Crisis of the center-left

6. Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party
Facebook protests in 2011
Activism against evictions due to foreclosures since 2014
Živi zid (Human Shield) as a youth, protest, anti- establishment party

7. Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party
Voter Age of Four Biggest Parties in Croatia
Party
Average
Mode
Median
Human Shield (Živi zid) 37 26 33
Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) 41 42 39
Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP) 52 66 58
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) 53 68 55
Source: FPZG Election Poll, 2017

8. Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party
Presidential Election 2014: 3rd place (16.4%)
Parliamentary Election 2015: 4th place (4.24%, 1 seat)
Parliamentary Election 2016: 4th place (6.23%, 3 seats)

9. Youth, Populism, and Euroscepticism: The Human Shield Party
Main Policy Features
Exit from the EU
Debt relief
Exit from NATO
Ideological overlapping with conspiracy theorists (Zeitgeist movies, David Icke, etc.)
Anti-American Critique
Chemtrails
Critique of Israel
Critique of mandatory vaccinations
Abolition of the Constitutional Court
Scare of global surveillance
Abolition of the autonomy of the Central Bank – free printing of money
Talk of Freemason conspiracy
Legalization of cannabis

10. Croatia in Comparison to other CEE Party Systems
Still relatively stable in comparison to other CEE countries
Introduction of new, start-up parties that challenge the system across the region
Euroscepticism is not only connected to the populist right, like in other CEE countries
No strong far left party in Croatia, as opposed to the Czech system, yet strong social democracy, as opposed to Poland and Hungary
Center-left parties are often economically more liberal than center-right parties

11. conclusion
The post-conflict experience of Croatia still makes its party system somewhat different from other CEE states
EU membership is still perceived as a return to Europe
Euroscepticism as an anti-establishment position, critique of the party cartell
Creeping voter alienation
Generation gap