Measuring a Pro-Democratic political culture Ronald Inglehart Democracy Audits & Governmental Indicators University of California October 30-31, 2009

Mass attitudes play an important role in the emergence and flourishing of democracy-- but not some attitudes are far more important than others: Favorable attitudes toward democracy itself are much less important than having orientations that enable democracy to function-- tolerance, trust, political activism and Postmaterialist values The latter are far more crucial than saying good things about the D-word

Do individual-level characteristics shape societal-level democratization? The political culture literature is based on the implicit assumption that they do– but this assumption is based on faith in face-validity alone-- it is rarely tested empirically. High levels of support for democracy at the individual level are assumed to be conducive to democratic institutions— which exists only at the societal level and can only be tested at that level. Nevertheless, pro- democratic attitudes are generally tested at the individual level, on the basis of face validity.

The World Values Survey now provides data from more than 90 countries. we can analyze the linkages between individual-level beliefs, and societal-level institutions. This makes it possible to test directly such questions as: Are certain beliefs or values conducive to democracy?

Countries surveyed at least once in the World Values Surveys 98 countries, containing almost 90 % of the world’s population (2007)

Development and cultural change move in two major phases Industrialization brings a shift from Traditional values to Secular-rational values. Postindustrial society/Service Society brings a shift from Survival values to Self-expression values

SELF-EXPRESSION VALUES Emphasize : High priority for freedom and self-expression (Postmaterialist over Materialist values) Tolerance of outgroups (foreigners, gays, women) Interpersonal trust Political activism Subjective well-being SURVIVAL VALUES emphasize the opposite

The emergence of Self-expression values at the individual level is closely linked the flourishing of democratic institutions at the societal level In order to demonstrate this, we must first answer the question: How do we measure democracy?

(1)Polity IV-index of “constitutional democracy” -- measures constitutional provisions for inclusive participation and provisions against concentration of power (2) Vanhanen’s index of “electoral democracy,” -- measures “inclusiveness” and “competitiveness” of national elections (3) Freedom House index of “liberal democracy” expert ratings “civil liberties” and “political rights” (4) World Bank index of “democratic governance” -- combines data from numerous sources measuring the “openness and accountability” of governance structures Widely-used measures of democracy

The next question: How do we measure mass support for democracy

Which mass attitudes are most strongly linked with democratic institutions? The most obvious way to measure mass support for democracy, is to ask people whether democracy is the best form of government for their country: this measures overt support for democracy Surprisingly, overt support is NOT the strongest predictor of actual democracy at the societal level The reason: today, overt support for democracy has become almost universal— and it’s even stronger in Albania and Azerbaijan than in Sweden or Switzerland

How do we validate attitudinal measures of pro-democratic attitudes? Face validity: people say favorable things about democracy (which are consistent with other attitudes that have face validity) Cross-level validation: Measuring the extent to which individual-level attitudes actually predict system-level democracy

Additional control variables: 1. independent variables must be measured at a time prior to the dependent variable (democracy) 2. we must control for democracy at prior times (autocorrelation) 3. we control for other possible determinants of democracy such as level of economic development, ethnic fractionalization, world market position, etc.

Constitutional Democracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy Democratic Governance Predictors: Confidence in Institutions Overt Support for Democracy Membership in Voluntary Associations Trust Self- Expression Values Regression Analysis (controlling for other key factors): Predictors of 4 measures of democracy

Regardless of which measure of democracy one uses, self-expression values are a much stronger predictor than any other mass orientation-- including overt support for democracy, despite its obvious face validity

Mass attitudes are linked with effective democracy mainly in so far as they are linked with Self-expression values (tolerance, trust, Postmaterialist values and participatory orientations). The literature on social capital emphasizes the importance of membership in associations—but empirically, it has a surprisingly weak impact on democracy And, surprising though it initially seems, self- expression values are a much stronger predictor of democracy than is overt support for democracy.

% emphasizing self-expression values

The strong correlation between self- expression values and effective democracy seems to reflect a causal linkage A country’s level of self-expression values around 1990, controlling for prior level of democracy, explains most of the subsequent CHANGE toward democracy from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s

Supplementary material now on this project’s web site : A selection from Inglehart and Welzel (2005) on how to measure a pro- democratic political culture; Another selection from the same source on measuring effective democracy;

A forthcoming article showing that the attitudinal variables used to measure a pro-democratic culture are being measured reliably cross- nationally (they are relatively stable attributes of given countries– about as stable as GNP/capita or Freedom House scores); and that they played an important role in the most recent major wave of democratization

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