1. A Human Development View on Value Change Trends (1981-2006)
Christian Welzel
Professor of Political Science
International University Bremen (IUB) ?
Istanbul, November 03, 2006

2. Two Dimensions of Cross-Cultural Variation
Variation in people‘s prevailing value orientations is enormous, yet in many aspects
it can be boiled down to just two dimensions of cross-cultural variation:
Weak vs. strong SECULAR-RATIONAL Values: with secular-rational values getting
weaker one approaches the mythical ideal of a sacred community, with these
values getting stronger one approaches the rational ideal of a secular community.
This polarity is about ideals of the COMMUNITY.
(2) Weak vs. strong SELF-EXPRESSION Values: with self-expression values getting
weaker one approaches the conformist ideal of a restrained individual, with these
values getting stronger one approaches the ideal of an expressive individual.
This polarity is about ideals of the INDIVIDUAL.

3. Weak vs. Strong Secular-Rational Values

4. Weak vs. Strong Self-Expression Values

5. An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity
The two value dimensions are partially distinct as they have different reference points, the community and the individual.
Yet, the two dimensions also partially overlap:
The weak poles of the two dimensions overlap on a common emphasis on human CONSTRAINT, the two strong poles overlap
on a common emphasis on human CHOICE.
In combination, weak secular-rational values and weak self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are restrained by chaining them to survival communities. The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human constraints.
In combination, strong secular-rational values and strong self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are free to express themselves by unchaining them from survival communities.
The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human choice.

6. An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity

7. The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Theory

8. The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Reality

9. Value Change Progressing from Constraint to Choice
Value change progressing from constraint to choice is a
central aspect of Human Development because this value
change makes people mentally free, motivating them to
develop, unfold, and actualize their inner human potentials.

10. A Human Development Model of Value Change
or Maslowian Value Change (next slide)

11. People tend to value the choices they are capable to practice.
PROSPERITY
People experience
their lives as
safe and secure
More action
resources available
to people
People experience
their lives as
self-directed
People perceive room
to relieve from
unchosen
community ties
People tend to value the
choices they are capable
to practice.
People perceive room
to develop their
creative human
potentials
Rising SECULAR-RATIONAL
view on COMMUNITY ties
Rising SELF-EXPRESSIVE
view on INDIVIDUAL potentials
Growing Emphasis on
HUMAN CHOICE

12. A Human Recession Model of Value Change
Regressing from Choice to Constraint

13. People tend to value the choices they are capable to practice.
MISERY
People experience
their lives as less
safe and secure
Less action
resources available
to people
People experience
their lives as
less self-directed
People perceive little
room to relieve from
unchosen
community ties
People tend to value the
choices they are capable
to practice.
People perceive little
room to develop
their creative
human potentials
Receding SECULAR-RATIONAL
view on COMMUNITY ties
Receding SELF-EXPRESSIVE
view on INDIVIDUAL potentials
Growing Emphasis on
HUMAN CONSTRAINT

14. Net Value Changes within Cultural Zones (1981-2006)
On average, the five
cultural zones (for which
data are available from
1981 to 2006) have been
moving toward stronger
self-expression values.
Four of these five zones
also moved toward
stronger secular-rational
values. But this move
is less pronounced.

15. Cohort Differences throughout Cultural Zones Cohort differences
indicate a long-term
increase of secular-
rational and self-
expression values in
all cultural zones
except Africa.

17. National Cohorts‘ Value Positions related to the Action Resources
Available in
their
Formative
Years
More action resources
in people‘s formative
years raise their self-
expression values. Yet,
societies‘ trajectories
on this growth path
differ in their height.
Note: Action resources
measured by Vanhanen‘s
index of power resources
(0-100 scale).

18. Let‘s Focus on a Central Component of Self-Expression Values
and Its Implications: Postmaterialistic Liberty Aspirations

19. The Democratic Implications of rising PLA Rising PLA let people
place more emphasis
on democracy but make
them more critical of
its presence, nurturing
a democratic reform
potential.
Note:
Scale range of one
standard deviation
around the mean
shown.

20. Conclusion
A central component of rising self-expression values, postmaterialistic liberty
aspirations, generates a democratic reform potential by driving people to place
more emphasis on democracy while making them more critical of the actual
democratic performance.