SOUTHERN AFRICAN WATER CO-OPERATION – LESSONS FROM THE OKAVANGO BASIN Anthony Turton & Peter Ashton Gibb-SERA Chair in IWRM and CSIR – Environmentek P.O. Box 395, Pretoria 0001, South Africa © 2004

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION Understanding the background to the problem Practicalities and difficulties What can we learn for environmental peacemaking? What do we want to communicate to decision-makers on environmental peacemaking? Conclusion

UNDERSTANDING THE BACKGROUND TO THE PROBLEM

SITES OF DISPUTES OVER WATER Most disputes over water occur in areas of transition from perennial to ephemeral systems, or where availability is uncertain 250 500 Kilometres N SITES OF DISPUTES OVER WATER

NAMIBIA (254) BOTSWANA (400) SOUTH AFRICA (497) ZAMBIA (1,011) ZIMBABWE (652) ANGOLA (1,050) D. R. C. (1,534) TANZANIA (937) MOZABIQUE (969) SWAZILAND (788) LESOTHO (760) MALAWI (1,014) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1250 1500 2000 2500 Mean annual Rainfall (mm) 250 Kilometres N MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL Large areas of the Okavango / Makgadikgadi basin receive low rainfall Only Cubango and Cuito rivers are perennial

MAKGADIKGADI CATCHMENT Map sourced from GEF Report on Okavango Delta Study 100 km N ZAMBIA Boteti River basin ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA ANGOLA BOTSWANA R.S.A. Deception Pan basin Ntwetwe Pan basin Lake Ngami Okwa R. Nata R. Omatako R. Cubango R. Okavango Delta Cuito R. Kavango R. Cuando R. Chobe R. Zambezi R. Deception Pan complex Okavango Basin DRC A T Za Zi Ma Mo B S L SA Sowa Pan basin Extent of Ramsar Site

WATER ABUNDANCE / SCARCITY Annual Availability (“Normal” Year) Supply >> Demand Supply ≈ Demand Supply << Demand Availability in Driest Month (“Normal” Year) Source: Biggs & Scholes (2004)

PROPORTION OF WATER INFLOWING / TRANSFERED FROM NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES 0 % 0 - 10 % 11 - 25 % 26 - 50 % > 50 % 5 8 76 91 58 9 7 10 32 60 50 33 25 12 42 PROPORTION OF WATER INFLOWING / TRANSFERED FROM NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES

PRACTICALITIES AND DIFFICULTIES

THE LEGACY OF CONFLICTS

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PEACEMAKING?

SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibia Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 250 500 Kilometres N Rovuma SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA The types of “solutions” that are selected for the Okavango / Makgadikgadi basin could be used in other SADC basins

DAMS AND SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibia Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 250 500 Kilometres N Rovuma DAMS AND SHARED RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000)

WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibia Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 250 500 Kilometres N Rovuma WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme

POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS 100 km N ZAMBIA NAMIBIA ANGOLA BOTSWANA Lake Ngami Omatako R. Cubango R. Okavango Delta Cuito R. Kavango R. Cuando R. Okavango Basin Possible water transfers into the Cubango or Cuito from the Kasai River Expansion of irrigated agriculture along south bank of Kavango River – (part of Namibia’s “Green Plan” for food security) Several potential hydropower dam sites identified on the Cubango River Could include irrigation supply One potential hydropower dam site identified on Kavango River in Namibia (Popa Falls) Possible water abstraction at Rundu for transfer to Windhoek Potential expansion of irrigated agriculture near Shakawe Expanded groundwater abstraction from fringes of Okavango Delta

WHAT DO WE WANT TO COMMUNICATE TO DECISION-MAKERS ON ENVIRONMENTAL PEACE-MAKING?

LANGUAGE DISTRIBUTION 100 km N ZAMBIA Boteti R. ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA ANGOLA BOTSWANA SOUTH AFRICA Deception Pan complex Makgadikgadi Pans Lake Ngami Okwa R. Nata R. Omatako R. Cubango R. Okavango Delta Cuito R. Kavango R. Cuando R. Chobe R. Zambezi R. 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 11 1 = NKANGALA 2 = MBWELA 3 = NYEMBA 4 = KWANYAMA 5 = !O!UNG 6 = KWANGALI 7 = HERERO 8 = KUNGU / TSUMKWE 9 = KUNG / =KX’AU//‘EIN 10 = YEYI / KXOE 11 = MBUKUSHU 12 = KXOE 13 = DIRIKU Plus: PORTUGUESE, AFRIKAANS, ENGLISH, TSWANA, UMBUNDU KEY TO LANGUAGE CODES

DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES (1) Post-Conflict Reconstruction Rural Development Urban & Industrial Growth Eco-Tourism Development

DEVELOPMENT IMPERATIVES (2) Subsistence Agriculture National Food Security Conservation Hydroelectricity

2002 ADULT HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 5.5 5.9 7.8 21.5 22.5 33.7 38.8 13.0 33.4 31.0 20.1 15.0 4.2 7.2 8.3 7.4 8.9 2002 ADULT HIV/AIDS PREVALENCE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA 0 - 10 % 10 - 15 % 15 - 20 % 20 - 30 % > 30 % Data Sources: UNAIDS, 2003 World Population Data Sheet, 2003

CONCLUSION

Conclusion Build on shared values Ubuntu – “umuntu, abantu, amabantu” (a person is a person because of people) Cultural heritage Language Peace needs for health and prosperity are universal HIV/AIDS as an opportunity for engagement

Conclusion Strategic development ethic: WEALTH W - water E (2) - education & energy A (4) - access (markets, finance, justice & ecosystems) L – land tenure T - technology that is appropriate H (2) - health (human & ecosystem)

Conclusion Move from national self-sufficiency to food security Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Driver of regional economic integration Move from water sharing to benefit sharing Parallel National Action (PNA) as a possible model Deepening the democratic experience