1. From an Extractive to a Beneficiation Economy: The Vital Role of Water Parliamentary Round Table Discussion Cape Town 30 March 2010 © AR Turton, 2010. Prof. Anthony Turton Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd Vice President: International Water Resource Association bronwyn@speakersinc.co.za www.anthonyturton.com

2. World Water Scarcity 1990 Water scarcity is related to population growth as much as it is related to environmental factors

3. World Water Scarcity 2020 Note the Cuvelai and the Limpopo River Basin’s both pass into extreme stress because of population growth

4. World Water Scarcity 2050 Note the Orange River Basin now joins the Limpopo as extremely stressed systems

5. World Water Scarcity 2070 At this stage the most economically active portion of Southern Africa resembles the Middle East North Africa

6. The Externalization of Costs Model Value Time Dev Cost Revenue V1 V2 Profit Mine Closure T1 Remediation Cost Magnitude at Closure T2 Externalized Costs © Adler et al., 2007 Balance Sheet Items Off-Balance Sheet Items Our national economic growth has been driven by an externalized cost model and this can no longer be sustained

7. Changing Economic Paradigms Value Time Externalized Cost Economic Model: Apartheid State New Economic Model: Developmental State? Human Capacity Energy Capacity Water Capacity We need considerable Thought Leadership and the support of the Private Sector, Government and the Trades Union to make this transition. Opening the debate on the possible role of Social Entrepreneurship – a fusion of capitalism (with a a small “c”) and socialism (with a small “s”).

8. Fact # 2: Acid rain causes pollen tube deformation in maize by mobilizing aluminium and thus threatens our national food security. (Google “aluminium toxicity maize” for more info). Fact # 1: Our coal deposits coincide with our best agricultural land and this means our energy addiction to coal is destroying our national agricultural capacity because of AMD.

9. N 500 km Maputo Orange-Senqu Limpopo Incomati Key Episodic river Shared river basin © P.J. Ashton Quality Problems in Shared Basins G R G G G = Groundwater contamination - fluoride and/or nitrate T T = Acidic atmospheric deposits A U E E A A A M U A A M U A S M U M A U A E S M R U A A U E E U M A U A E U = Urban / industrial effluent – pathogens + nutrients + organics M = Metals (mining) R = Radioactivity S = Salinity E = Excessive sediment A = Agricultural chemicals

10. Surface strata Dolomites Ore-bearing strata Eastern Basin Central Basin Western Basin Dyke Safety drive Workings Vertical Shaft Acid Mine Drainage in Gauteng The volume of the mine void under the Witwatersrand is equal to 5 times the volume of Lake Kariba – with no evaporative loss – with new thinking and political will this can become a major source of New Water Reverse Osmosis is a robust technology that has been proven in eMalahleni Having this as strategic storage enables new Dam Operating Rules to be applied with national benefits

11. Years 19651975198519952005201520252035 20 40 80 60 Water Demand (10 9 m 3 yr 1 )(billion m³/yr¹) Highest water use estimate Lowest water use estimate Total surface + groundwater resources (accessible with new technology) Total surface resources (existing technology) Q x F = YQ = volume of water available at national level at a high assurance of supply Y = volume of water needed at national level at a high assurance of supply to sustain the economy F = Flux value of water Flux value of water = 1.7 38 x 1.7 = 64.6 Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19) 38 x.8 = 30.4 This is our problem

12. Water in rivers and dams known as the Resource Reticulated potable water needed to sustain socioeconomic activities Waste water draining the economy known as the Return Flow Rainfall (natural) and Return Flow (engineered) component of the Resource Hydrological & Ecological System Strategic Storage System Municipal Potable Water System Municipal Waste Water System National Government JurisdictionLocal Government Jurisdiction As water demand exceeds the natural supply of rainfall, the majority of the national resource will start to become dependent on urban runoff – hence the need to prioritize return flow management (sewage, AMD, industrial effluent). Recycling will become the hydrological foundation of our national economy and future growth will depend on this. Water is a Flux

13. Thank You Water is a Flux This is the solution for Economic Growth