1. Critical Assessment of the Basins at Risk in the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Workshop on the Management of International Rivers and Lakes 17-19 August 2005 Third World Centre for Water Management Helsinki University of Technology Finland Dr. Anthony Turton Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management aturton@csir.co.za President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Waters www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu © AR Turton, 2005.

2. Layout of Presentation Basins at Risk Project Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Overview of Selected Basins Lessons learned

3. Basins at Risk Project Basins at Risk (BAR) Scale –+7 (extreme violence) to – 7 (extreme cooperation) Majority of events of cooperative nature by ratio of 2:1 (1,228:507) Most events (64%) related to water quantity and infrastructure Most events mild –87% of all extreme events (-6) are related to volumes and hydraulic infrastructure

4. Basins at Risk

6. Basins at Risk Project 17 Basins at Risk –8 of these are in Africa –6 of these are in Southern Africa (Incomati, Cunene, Limpopo, Okavango, Orange and Zambezi) Working hypothesis is “the likelihood and intensity of dispute rises as the rate of change within each basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change” (Wolf et al., 2003:43).

7. Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Southern Africa was a place where the Cold War got hot. Regional wars of liberation. Significant combat operations occurred in three of the six Basins at Risk: –Cunene/Cuvelai –Okavango (largest single military defeat since Second World War) –Zambezi

8. Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Impacted International River Basins Legend: PS = Pivotal State IS = Impacted State SC = Special case Incomati PS - - IS Limpopo PS - IS Orange PS SC PS - - - - IS Namibia Botswana South Africa Zimbabwe Angola Mozambique Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Malawi Tanzania Riparian States Impacted States Pivotal States Pivotal Okavango PS - - IS Maputo PS - - IS Pungué PS - IS Save-Runde PS - IS Zambezi PS - IS - - Cunene - - - IS PS © A R Turton, 2004 © Ashton & Turton, 2005

9. Shared River Basins Africa’s shared river basins contain: 61 % of the area 77 % of the people 93 % of the water © Pete Ashton

10. = 860 mm isohyet = World average rainfall MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm © Pete Ashton

11. Overview of Selected Basins Cunene is the most significant resource for Namibia Hydraulic connection to the Cuvelai Basin making this a strategic issue Saw hot combat of both a conventional and counter-insurgency war type Good basin to study in light of the Basins at Risk project

12. Ruacana Falls on Cunene

13. Military Damage to Infrastructure

14. Cuvelai Basin Infrastructure

15. Santa Clara during the War

16. Lessons Learned Basins at Risk Project alerted us to critical issue of institutional development Southern African Hydropolitical Complex (SAHPC) as a mitigator of conflict Institutional development trends in SAHPC go contrary to global trends –Because water is too important to fight over Each of the 6 Basins at Risk now have functioning basin-wide regimes

17. Lessons Learned While global trend sees bilateral agreements in multilateral basins by a ratio of 2:1, this is not so in SAHPC 3 of 6 Basins at Risk were theatre of protracted and “hot” military conflict At no time was water ever a driver Water resource management institutions proved to be robust Foundation for post-conflict reconstruction

18. Cuvelai Kunene Zambezi Limpopo Pungué Buzi Save-Runde Orange Maputo Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/ Makgadikgadi Congo Nile Lake Chad Namibi a Botswana South Africa Congo (DRC) Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho Swaziland Malawi Mozambique Angola 25 0 50 0 0 Kilometres N Rovuma WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme © Pete Ashton

19. Thank You