Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources G.B. Pant INDIAN INSTITUTE.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

Advertisements

Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology K. Rupa Kumar Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India.

Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.

Climatology Lecture 8 Richard Washington Variability of the General Circulation.

Climatology Climatology is the study of Earth’s climate and the factors that affect past, present, and future climatic changes. Climate describes the long-term.

1 Climate change and the cryosphere. 2 Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Contemporary observations.

Task: (ECSK06) Regional downscaling Regional modelling with HadGEM3-RA driven by HadGEM2-AO projections National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR)/KMA.

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources INDIAN INSTITUTE OF.

Climate Change and Malaysia

3. Climate Change 3.1 Observations 3.2 Theory of Climate Change 3.3 Climate Change Prediction 3.4 The IPCC Process.

Consequences of Global climate Change. Impact of Global Warming Sea level rising Altered precipitation pattern Change in soil moisture content Increase.

Source: IPCC 1.Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change) 2.Sea level rise and coastal flooding (melting ice and thermal expansion) 3.Expansion of tropical.

Outline Background, climatology & variability Role of snow in the global climate system Indicators of climate change Future projections & implications.

CHAPTER 50 AN INTRODUCTION TO ECOLOGY AND THE BIOSPERE Copyright © 2002 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Benjamin Cummings Section B2: Factors Affecting.

May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?

Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

India’s Water Crisis El Niño, Monsoon, and Indian Ocean Oscillation.

Interdecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Precipitation By Huijun Wang Institute of Atmospheric Physics

4. Models of the climate system. Earth’s Climate System Sun IceOceanLand Sub-surface Earth Atmosphere Climate model components.

Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.

5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.

Climate and Climate Change

COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS.

Regional Climate Modeling in the Source Region of Yellow River with complex topography using the RegCM3: Model validation Pinhong Hui, Jianping Tang School.

Climate. Factors that Affect Climate Climate □Average weather conditions over a long period of time □Defined by Many Factors □Temperature □Precipitation.

2012 TTA ICTP1 ENSO-South Asian Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton,

© Crown copyright Met Office Climate Projections for West Africa Andrew Hartley, Met Office: PARCC national workshop on climate information and species.

The Eta Regional Climate Model: Model Development and Its Sensitivity in NAMAP Experiments to Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperature Treatment Rongqian.

December 2002 Section 2 Past Changes in Climate. Global surface temperatures are rising Relative to average temperature.

Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends Melchior Mataki AIACC-SIS09 Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development.

Science, Society and Solutions

IRI, 5 May, 2004 Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

Recent hydrological and climatological changes V. Barros.

CSTPR-CIRES 24th October, 03 Asian Monsoon - ENSO Teleconnections + Climate Change Scenarios for India K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow

Building Asian Climate Change Scenarios by Multi-Regional Climate Models Ensemble S. Wang, D. Lee, J. McGregor, W. Gutowski, K. Dairaku, X. Gao, S. Hong,

Lecture 5 The Climate System and the Biosphere. One significant way the ocean can influence climate is through formation of sea ice. Sea ice is much more.

Variation of Surface Soil Moisture and its Implications Under Changing Climate Conditions 1.

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change Eugene S. Takle Agronomy Department Geological and Atmospheric Science.

Global Warming and Water Resources. Frequently asked Questions Is global warming occurring? Why does global warming occur? How do we predict global warming?

Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: Water Resources Water Resources Agriculture.

Effect of Tibetan snow on Indian Summer monsoon rainfall using RegCM2.5 M. S. Shekhar & S. K. Dash Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Hauz Khas, New.

The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.

The lower boundary condition of the atmosphere, such as SST, soil moisture and snow cover often have a longer memory than weather itself. Land surface.

Global Climate Change: Past and Future Le Moyne College Syracuse, New York February 3, 2006 Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems.

PROMISE-ICTP Meeting March, 2003 The Climatic Impacts on Indian Agriculture K. Krishna Kumar K. Rupa Kumar, R.G. Ashrit, N.R. Deshpande and James.

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Objectives Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation.

Climate Variability and Extremes: Is Global Warming Responsible? Chip Konrad Associate Professor Department of Geography, UNC – Chapel Hill Director of.

Role of Soil Moisture Coupling on the Surface Temperature Variability Over the Indian Subcontinent J. Sanjay M.V.S Rama Rao and R. Krishnan Centre for.

Active/Passive Microwave Observations Provide Essential Climate Variables for Studying Hydrologic Cycle Probably the Greatest Consequences of Our Warming.

Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, Boulder Asian Monsoon… K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow

NATCOM Project Mid-term Evaluation Climate Change Projections for India and Assessment of the Associated Agricultural and Human Health Impacts.

Changes in the South American Monsoon and potential regional impacts L. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagan, D. Lopez-Carr UCSB, USA A.Posadas, R. Quiroz.

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

“CLIMATE IS WHAT WE EXPECT, AND WEATHER IS WHAT WE GET” ~ MARK TWAIN.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

Indicators for Climate Change over Mauritius Mr. P Booneeady Pr. SDDV Rughooputh.

The role of Atlantic ocean on the decadal- multidecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon Observational and paleoclimate evidences Observational and.

Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.

Global Warming Causes&Effects. Natural cause Greenhouse gas.

Climate Change & The Probability of Extreme Events Brian Hoskins Royal Society Research Professor & Professor of Meteorology University of Reading Department.

Precipitation extremes during Indian summer monsoon Jayashree Revadekar Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology PUNE,

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamDr. Akm Saiful Islam WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Lecture-1:

Climate Change & India’s Monsoons

Global Impacts of Climate Change

MONSOON VARIABILITY.

Global Climate Change.

Sub Topic – Indian Monsoon and Climate Change

Sub Topic – The Indian Summer Monsoon and Climate Change By- Mali B.B.

Presentation transcript:

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources G.B. Pant INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY Pune

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 OUTLINE Objectives Objectives Research Tasks Research Tasks Indian rainfall variability Indian rainfall variability Baseline precipitation analysis Baseline precipitation analysis Precipitation climatology of major river basins Precipitation climatology of major river basins Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of precipitation over major river basins

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Objectives Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins of India Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over major river basins of India Study of past changes in water availability and their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land- cover changes Study of past changes in water availability and their sensitivity to climate variability and land-use/land- cover changes Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitation Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of precipitation Study of past changes in water quality Study of past changes in water quality Development of future scenarios for water availability and quality under different climate change scenarios Development of future scenarios for water availability and quality under different climate change scenarios

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Research Tasks Identification of target river basins Identification of target river basins Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation Baseline precipitation analysis: Precipitation climatology of major river basins; Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basins Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations of monthly/daily precipitation over major river basins Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changes Case studies of past changes in water availability and quality in relation to climate and land-use/land-cover changes Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basins Hydrometeorological analysis of HadRM2 simulations for major river basins Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and cover Water availability scenarios for major river basins including the scenarios for the impacts of land use and cover Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme events Identification of critical areas and frequency/impacts of extreme events

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Mean Rainfall Patterns Data Source: CMAP ( ) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Indian Summer Monsoon Contribution to Annual Rainfall and its Variability Data Source : CMAP ( ) Monsoon/Annual (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 The Stability of the Indian Summer Monsoon

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Temporal scales of monsoon variability IntraseasonalInterannualDecadal/CenturyMillennia & longer Onset/withdrawal; Active and break- monsoon phases; day oscillations; severe rainstorms Droughts and floods Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods Changes in the areal extents of monsoons Atmospheric variability; tropical- midlatitude interactions; Soil moisture; Sea surface temperatures Atmospheric interactions; El Niño/ Southern Oscillation; Top layers of tropical oceans; Snow cover; Land surface characteristics Monsoon circulation variations; Deep ocean involvement; Greenhouse gases increase; Human activities; Biospheric changes; Volcanic dust Global climate excursions; Ice ages; Warm epochs; Sun-earth geometry Factors Features

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Rainfall Data Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations ( ) Homogeneous monthly rainfall data set for 306 stations ( ) Daily rainfall data at raingauge stations during (variable network) Daily rainfall data at raingauge stations during (variable network)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Change in Raingauge Network Density ( )

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Raingauge Network for Daily Rainfall Data

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall ( ) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Major River Basins of India

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Identification of Target River Basins 66 notable river basins 66 notable river basins 3 large river basins identified : Ganga, Godavari and Krishna 3 large river basins identified : Ganga, Godavari and Krishna Summer monsoon main source of water for all the three basins Summer monsoon main source of water for all the three basins

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasona Precipitation : GANGA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasonal Precipitation : GODAVARI

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Seasonal Precipitation : KRISHNA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GANGA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: GODAVARI

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Variation of Basin-mean Precipitation: KRISHNA

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models (HadRM2/HadRM3H) High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM Formulation identical to HadAM Formulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nesting One-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India Seasonal Rainfall

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 All-India mean Surface Air Temperature

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : HadRM2

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 Annual Cycles of Rainfall in Major River Basins of India Ganga Godavari Krishna

Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002 CONCLUSIONS  Coupled atmosphere-ocean models consistently indicate general warming over India, by about 2° to 4°C from 1990 to  The models also indicate enhanced rainfall conditions over India in a greenhouse gas increase scenario; however, there is some disagreement among the models on rainfall changes  The models consistently indicate substantial increase in monsoon precipitation over northwest India.  Significant potential for regionalization; work in progress.