1. Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends Melchior Mataki AIACC-SIS09 Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PACE-SD) The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji Tel: (+679) 321 21 51 ; Fax: (+679) 330 91 76 mataki_m@usp.ac.fj

2. Purpose of Paper ‚To characterize the observed behavior of surface climate at Nadi and Suva ‚To obtain an impression of on-going climate trends and their impact on exposure units

3. ‚75% of Fiji population (~800,000), ~210,000 are in the greater Suva (capital) area ‚Economic activities: ‚Agriculture-based economy with heavy reliance on a single crop – sugar cane. Other main contributors to GDP are tourism and garment- manufacture - most of these are located in Viti levu ‚Land mass - 10,388km 2 ‚Dry in leeward (Nadi) ‚200cm annual rainfall (ARF) ‚Wet on windward east side(Suva) ‚300cm to 600cm (ARF) Viti Levu (Fiji)

4. ‚Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Stations ‚Nadi ‚Suva ‚~200km apart ‚Surface temperature and rainfall data 1961 - 2003 ‚Max & Min temperature (T) ‚Daily rainfall (RF) Climatological Stations

5. *Baseline period (1961-1990) T & RF analysis *Monthly and Annual climatological means (normals) *Time series analysis on seasonal and annual basis Data Analysis

6. Results & Discussion Nadi Suva Annual Climatological Normals

7. Monthly Climatological Normals

8. T-Anomalies NadiSuva

9. Max & Min T

10. RF Anomalies

11. ENSO is the key factor for variability in the Pacific climate system at interannual timescales.

12. El Nino and RF

13. SPCZ and Heavy Rainfall Events in PICs

14. Equatorial Indian Ocean temperatures also affect rainfall over the Pacific Warmer or colder sea surface temperatures (SST) affect the Earth's atmospheric circulation pattern such as to modulate the intensity of rainfall over most of Tropics. A phenomenon known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been found to affect the monsoon circulation and the MJO itself is affected by the variation of the SSTs. The MJO can be characterized by a large-scale eastward movement of air in the upper troposphere with a period of about 20-70 days, over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere.

16. Observed Sea level Changes

17. ‚The Island of Viti levu has a low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity to external shocks and high vulnerability to climate change ‚The inter-seasonal/annual variability in RF significantly affects the socio-economic activities on the island ‚Warming signals are already evident and there are evidences to suggest that sea level is rising Concluding Remarks

18. ‚Climate variability has significant impacts in Viti levu (also other islands in the pacific) on all strata of socio-economic activity. ‚While climate disasters (cyclones, floods and droughts) have prime impacts, inter-annual variability continually affects agricultural production, water resources, energy and many other sectors. Concluding Remarks

19. ‚Observed signals of climate change and enhanced climate variability in Viti levu call for a number of critical actions: ‚Island/region & sector specific adaptation strategies based on proven knowledge Concluding Remarks