1. Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology K. Rupa Kumar Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

2. The People Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Mr. C.M. Mohile Mr. C.M. Mohile Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan Dr. P.K. Mishra Dr. P.K. Mishra Dr. G.B. Pant Dr. G.B. Pant Collaborators/Consultants: Collaborators/Consultants: Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University

3. OUTLINE Objectives Objectives Research Tasks Research Tasks Observed climate change in India Observed climate change in India Coupled model projections Coupled model projections HadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios HadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios HadRM3H installation at IITM HadRM3H installation at IITM

4. Objectives Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climate Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climate Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictions Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictions Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21 st century Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21 st century Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessments Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessments

5. Research Tasks Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for India Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for India Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experiments Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experiments Installation of HadRM3H at IITM Installation of HadRM3H at IITM Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3H Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3H Climate change scenario runs with HadRM3H Climate change scenario runs with HadRM3H Quantification of key uncertainties Quantification of key uncertainties

6. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

7. Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

8. All-India Mean Surface Temperatures (1901-2000) Based on a constant network of 31 stations well- distributed over India

9. Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature

10. Diurnal Asymmetry of All-India Mean Annual Temperature Trends

11. Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and Simulated All-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air Temperature

12. Models – Temp Maps

13. Models - RF Maps

14. Models – RF Contr

15. Models – RF CV

16. Temp Series

17. MonRF Series

18. Climate Change over India in Transient Simulations (1980-2039 relative to 1920-79)

19. Models-MonRF var

20. MonRF Change - ECHAM

21. MonRF Change – HadCM3

22. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models (HadRM2/HadRM3H) High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea- surface boundaries by output from HadCM Formulation identical to HadAM Formulation identical to HadAM Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° One-way nesting One-way nesting Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

23. All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

24. All-India Seasonal Rainfall

25. All-India mean Surface Air Temperature

26. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)

27. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)

28. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)

29. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)

30. State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : HadRM2

31. State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2

32. State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2

33. State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2

34. HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact groups Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60) Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60) Each experiment has 20 years data Each experiment has 20 years data Monthly and Daily data on various parameters Monthly and Daily data on various parameters Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing Spatial means for administrative units (other spatial units can be included) Spatial means for administrative units (other spatial units can be included) One standard CD set of monthly data with basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement One standard CD set of monthly data with basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement