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2 SSI Introduction Purpose of the SSI Working definition of space security “The secure and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.” Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

3 SSI Methodology 1) Research on trends and developments 2) Online questionnaire 3) Expert review of research Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

4 SSI The Space Environment - Trends - Growing debris threats to spacecraft, but annual rate of new debris production decreasing Increasing awareness of space debris threats and continued development of international debris mitigation guidelines Growing demand for radio frequency spectrum Growing demand for orbital slot allocations Space surveillance capabilities to support collision avoidance slowly improving Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

5 SSI The Space Environment - Developments - Space debris population increased by 2.1 percent Space debris mitigation guidelines drafted at UN COPUOS Over one thousand cases of radio-frequency interference reported Regional efforts to harmonize radio-frequency utilization in Europe and Southeast Asia China established space debris monitoring body Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

6 SSI Laws, Policies, and Doctrines - Trends - Progressive development of legal framework for outer space activities: 1967 OST; 1968 Rescue Agreement; 1972 Liability and 1975 Registration Conventions Some work at COPUOS, but the CD has been deadlocked on space weapons issues since 1998 National space policies consistently emphasize international cooperation and peaceful uses of outer space Growing focus within national military doctrine on security uses of outer space Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

7 SSI Laws, Policies, and Doctrines - Developments - Further stalemate in “Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space” (PAROS) debate at UN Expansion of COPUOS mandate proposed New space policies adopted in China, Europe, Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and US India, Israel, and Japan stressing national security space applications US to release of new military space policy directive Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

8 SSI Civil Space and Global Utilities - Trends - Growth in the number of actors gaining access to space Changing priorities and funding levels within civil space programs Steady growth in international cooperation in civil space Dramatic growth in use of global utilities Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

9 SSI Civil Space and Global Utilities - Developments - Global progress in space access, launch, and propulsion technologies Civil space agencies announce new programs, greater focus on manned space exploration and micro-satellites Modest increases in international civil space budgets Space agencies develop asteroid interception missions Successful launch of first Galileo satellite despite funding concerns China and India access Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

10 SSI Commercial Space - Trends - Continued overall growth in commercial space industry World commercial space revenues rose from $2.1 billion in 1980 to ~$100 billion in 2004 Declining commercial launch costs support increased commercial access to space GEO launch costs have declined from about $40,000/kg in 1990 to $26,000/kg in 2000 Government subsidies and national security concerns play an important role in the commercial space sector Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

11 SSI Commercial Space - Developments - Unequal growth in commercial space industry Privatization and consolidation continues US continues to lose commercial launch market share to Europe and Russia Interest in nascent space tourism sector US government remains single largest commercial space client Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

12 SSI Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations - Trends - US and USSR/Russia lead in developing military space systems US has over 100 operational military satellites, 90% of global military space spending Russia has approximately 61 operational military satellites More states developing military space capabilities: Australia, Chile, China, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, NATO, Spain, UK all have dedicated military space assets Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

13 SSI Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations - Developments - Significant cost overruns and delays in US military space acquisition programs Russia continues to face program setbacks Regional tensions drive military space development in Asia and Middle East China continues to expand military space program European nations expand imaging and communications capabilities Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

14 SSI Space Systems Protection - Trends - US and Russia lead in general capabilities to detect rocket launches, the US in the development of technologies to detect direct attacks on satellites Protection of satellite ground stations a concern: protection of satellite communications links poor but improving Protection of satellites against some direct threats improving Russia and the US lead in capabilities to rapidly rebuild space systems following a direct attack on satellites Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

15 SSI Space Systems Protection - Developments - US developing geostationary and ground-based space situational awareness US successfully tests GPS “pseudolite” Increasing encryption of satellite communications Improvements in radiation hardened processors US research satellite to facilitate greater use of MEO Smaller, cheaper launches increasing ability to recover after attack Russia continuing to develop air launch capacity Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

16 SSI Space Systems Negation - Trends - Proliferation of capabilities to attack ground stations and communications links US leading in the development of space situational awareness capabilities to support space negation Ongoing proliferation of ground-based capabilities to attack satellites Increasing access to space-based negation enabling capabilities Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

17 SSI Space Systems Negation - Developments - State-sponsored jamming incidents in Libya and Iran, Falun Gong sponsored jamming in China Progress on High-Energy Lasers in the US and on basic laser research in China Upgrades in US and Russian ground-based anti- ballistic missile systems Actors in China, France, and UK continue basic research into kinetic kill vehicles US micro-satellites demonstrate dual-use rendezvous and surveillance capabilities Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

18 SSI Space-Based Strike Weapons - Trends - No space-based strike weapons (SBSW) have been tested or deployed in space; the US continues to develop a space-based interceptor for its missile defense system A growing number of actors are developing SBSW precursor technologies outside of SBSW programs Precision navigation Micro-satellites Precision re-entry Precision attitude control High power lasers High-G thrusters Large ∆-V thrusters Precision maneuverability Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion

19 SSI Space-Based Strike Weapons - Developments - SBSW Programs US NFIRE Kill Vehicle test cancelled SBSW pre-cursor technologies Development of precision re-entry technology in US, Russia, China, and Europe Upgrades in US and Russian global missile tracking and warning US, Europe, China, Russia, and India continue research and development of global positioning systems Introduction Methodology Environment Laws, Policies and Doctrines Civil Space Commercial Space Military Space Protection Negation Space-Based Strike Weapons Conclusion